Friday, March 18

Long Live 'Long Run'

Long Run was to be my biggest bet of the festival's four days.  Firstly because it was time for the older horses to show their age, and the youngblood to come through to take over the mantle of King of the Hill, and the form book stood by such a scenario.  The second was becasue day two and three were so crap I needed a way out of the hole I had dug for myself.

Being decidely conservative in my approach, I logged on the night before to find Paddy Power quoting Long Run at 9/2, with Insured 3 places at 7/2 which I thought was huge given previous results at Kempton.  However, given my previous two days results I wasn't about to preach my opinion as being a sure thing and quietly declared these thoughts to the privacy of me, myself and I.
Insured 3 places means you get your money back if he is second or third and paid the quoted price if he wins.  I decided I'd bet the insured 3 places.  When I logged on the next morning before heading out for a cycle, it had reduced from 7/2 to 11/4, three quarters of a point was not an inconsiderate amount of cash given the amount staked, but what can you do.  I placed the bet and headed out for a 3 hour cycle.

Upon my return I retreated to the couch , turned up the surround sound and mimicked every action of Sam Whaley-Cowen (the jockey) as he covered every blade of grass on the new course.  Had I a whip in hand the couch would be threadbare and ragged, get in there you good thing.

On the soccer front, tonight I will bet a treble:

Over 2.5 - Gladbach v Kaiserlautern 4/6
Both to Score - Chesterfield v Rotherham 4/6
Both to Score - Southend v Hereford 4/6

3pts @ 4.63

Thursday, March 17

Cheltenham continued

In Greek mythology the Sphinx baffled travellers with her unanswerable riddle – eventually it was solved by Oedipus and the Sphinx had to commit suicide. Had she instead asked travellers to name a winner of any of the 20 runner handicaps at Cheltenham she may still be alive today.

From the time Oscar's Well clattered the last hurdle, on day two, while in contention for at least a place, my selections have been cursed ever since, and curse was exactly what I did, sitting at work, headphones on, excel on one screen and RTE player on the other.  The whole office were no doubt enlightened to hear the "ohaaaw, Fuck ya" I bellowed as he hit the final obstacle. 

Day three, my only bet was a double on Poquelin & Big Bucks, and not even I can stop the mighty Big Bucks from winning his third World Hurdle in as many years.

Tomorrow my only bet will be in the Gold Cup, I have decided the poor unfortunate equine chaser that will fall victim to my betting curse shall be "Long Run", I apologise to all connections in advance for placing the stoppers on him.

Training
Today I managed a short two and a half hours on the bike, which consisted of a few loops of Edmonston Rd/Stocking Lane.  After last week when I reached the initial climb and felt lifeless, it was a pleasant reversal of form to feel quite good after a week's rest.  The legs were strong and I kept the gear ratio higher than normal in order to build the required strength in the legs.  A short 45km in total, but more intensive climbing than average.

The weather shall decide my direction and distance tomorrow, currently contemplating visiting Slieve Mann for the second time this season.  I think we shall become good friends between now and the first Saturday in July when the Alps come to the fore, and crucify thousands of  (select your own word) brave/mad/idiotic cyclists on their mission to scale four of them.

Wednesday, March 16

Cheltenham Day Two

All my hard work at Cheltenahm day one was sucked up by the soccer yesterday evening.
Seconditis

Spirit Son (2nd)
Caroles Legacy (2nd)
Garde Champetre & A New Story (2nd & 3rd)
Quevega (won)
Peddlers Cross & Menorah (2nd & nowhere)

Fortunately I had an each way treble which pulled out 12 points profit for the day (Caroles Legacy, Tullamore Dew, A New Story).

Then it got all sucked up by the soccer, 1 1/2 out of two on both doubles, longshot also lost for a nine point loss, plus I had a 2pt double on Man Utd and Bayern.  Even though Inter's first goal was offside the bet still would have lost.  -11 pts on soccer, +1 pt for the day.  Feels like I lost a fortune, ha.

Todays fancies at Cheltenham are:

1.30 Beshabar
2.05 Oscars Well
2.40 Time For Rupert
3.20 Mater Minded
4.00 Call The Police
4.40 Plan A
5.15 Raise The Beat

My first bet will be an each way accum on the first 6 which pays 250k+ if they all win, should not be too much trouble I hope.

Monday, March 14

Cheltenham

It's that time again, when everyone turns their attention to the equine cream of the crop for 4 days in March, whether they follow racing regularly or not.  I'll have a few small bets tomorrow but I'm no expert on the horsey front so handle with caution.  My amateur selections shall consist of :

1.30 Spirit Son
2.05 Medermit (nap)
2.40 Caroles Legacy
3.20 Menorah (treble)
4.00 A New Story
4.40 Quevega (nb)
5.15 Tullamore Dew


On the soccer front, clawed back 4 pts on sunday and another 3.7pts tonight via a 2pt double (Norwich/Bristol & Getafe/Bilbao Both to score double @ 2.88).

Tomorrows soccer bets below:


Over 2.5 - Sheff Wed v Peterborough
Both to Score - Crewe v Southend

4pts @ 2.36
---------------------------------------------

Both to Score - Ipswich v Watford
Both to Score - Macclesfield v Lincoln

4pts @ 2.78
---------------------------------------------

Longshot
Both the above bets combined.

1pt @ 6.55

Saturday, March 12

Gazumped!

 Training
My initial intention of revisiting Slieve Mann & Shay Elliott on Saturday was wandering wearily in my mind when those well informed meteorologists predicted snow, or at least very low temperatures.  The need to visit the far reaches of Glenmalure subsided rapidly, and was replaced by the vision of hill repeats of Edmonston Rd/Stocking Lane as my Saturday training. 
Leaving my comfortable abode at 9am, my thoughts en route to Edmonston were summarising the day ahead as 45 mins (approx) per loop, times 6 loops plus 30mins there and back total, should see me arrive home for 2pm, showered and changed in time for the football scores to begin streaming in.

In actual fact, after 20 mins on the bike and beginning the climb of Edmonston Rd I felt exhausted, as if I was finishing a five hour cycle instead of beginning one.  My legs were as weak as water, couldn't get into a rythym and just wanted to go back to bed, which is exactly what I did after another 20 mins of climbing.  I didn't even make the turn off to descend Stocking Lane, I simply turned about face and descended Edmonston.  The mind was screaming onward to Slieve Mann, but the body ruled the roost and guided me home for a surprisngly needed rest day.  I'll do the ThinkBike spin tomorrow.

 Sports Betting
Poor results today a the soccer, -14pts on posted bets.  Sometimes I follow my own advice and sometimes I stray.  Today I also bet Bolton to beat Birmingham once I saw the line ups thinking there was some value in their price; the profit was soon gobbled up by my Over 2.5 bet losing in the Man Utd/Arsenal clash.  How this bet failed to win is a mystery given the chances in the second half.
I then bet Real Madrid to win to nil, which was in hindsight the bet of the weekend, Hercules havent scored in their last ten away games, at 5/6 it was a steal.  I was -10pts at this stage for the day.

Luckily I recovered all losses at the greyhounds at Shelbourne via Broadstrand Lad (7/4 winner), Colourful Fox (7/2 loser), Quick Lee (11/4 winner), which enabled the great escape with a half point profit for the day.  Maybe tomorrow will be more successful, bets below:

Over 2.5 - Cagliari v Udinese     10/11
Over 2.5 - St Pauli v Stuttgart     4/7

4 pts @ 3.00
---------------------------------------------------

Correct Score - Chievo v Fiorentina     13/2

1 pt @ 7.5
---------------------------------------------------

Under 2.5 - Chievo v Fiorentina      4/7
Win to nil - AC Milan                     4/5

3 pts @ 2.83
---------------------------------------------------

Friday, March 11

Fling Dem Arrors

No, its not the local Chinese take away, its what I was thinking at approximately 7pm Thursday evening as I negotiated my way to the couch to watch the regular weekly Premier League Darts on Sky Sports. 

Darts is such a  great game, and it's particularly satisfying to see it on the box so often, following the sponsorship and exposure it has received in recent years.  Phil Taylor is a legend, plain and simple.  It will take any person who emulates his achievements a sheer lifetime to replicate the results he has tanked up over the years.
I played regularly in the Isle of Man years ago, and also in Manchester while I was working one shit job after another, and played to a decent standard I might add, 13 to 17 dart finishes being nothing strange game after game when on song.  I recently bought a board for the spare room and dusted off the old darts which where in their case since Manchester days, ten years ago!  They still frequent the treble twenty, the game never leaves you, you only leave it.  I bought a new set of darts, and they are a better dart for my throwing style.  Next I need to implement my three point plan.

1. Find a local watering hole with a dart board and a dart team.
2. Show up uninvited on a normal Saturday or Sunday afternoon and begin flinging dem arrors.
3. Whip the local players so badly that they are telling me about their pub team and how I should think about joining them some evening.

Still working on stage 1, its not easy finding boards in Dublin.  The one and only thing I prefer about England to Ireland is their love of the game of darts, its everywhere, a board in every pub, you never have to wander far to find an oche ready and waiting. 

Training
One morning in the gym this week, and lots of walking to and from work to merely soak up a few extra calories I added while in the local beer hut during the week, tentatively watching Spurs qualify for the last eight of the champions league; and witness with astonishment how biased the referee was towards Barcelona as they evicted a depleted Arsenal from the competition, the previous evening.

Planning on the same cycling route on Saturday as last week, so that I can compare the stats.  Sunday should see another shorter spin with the ThinkBike group.


Sports Betting
Couple of losing soccer bets midweek, a 3pt bet on Spurs to win, and a 2pt double on Under 2.5 on Spurs/AC Milan & Schalke/Valencia, lose, lose on both fronts.  However, this was swiftly recompensed by Phil 'The Power' Taylor & Adrian 'Jackpot' Lewis in the Darts Premier League on Thursday when they brought me home 6pts profit for the evening.  I had a losing double and treble which included Mark Webster to win his match in the darts also.  Webster lost miserably to Terry Jenkins and deservedly so, he was awful, especially after hammering Lewis the previous week with a 110 average!
The single bets on Taylor & Lewis proved fruitful and swung the financial pendulum in my favour for the evening, to the detriment of Paddy Power.

Saturday's soccer bets below:

 Top Bet
Both to Score - Cheltenham v Aldershot     4/6
Both to Score - Charlton v Brentford          4/6

5 pts @ 2.78


 Next Best
Over 2.5 - Stockport v Burton Albion      8/11
Over 2.5 - Northampton v Macclesfield   8/11

4 pts @ 2.98


 A.N.Other
Both to Score - Hoffenheim v Dortmund            8/11
Both to Score - Almeria v Ath Madrid               4/6

4 pts @ 2.88


 A.N.Other
Both NOT to Score - Real Madrid v Hercules   4/6
Both NOT to Score - Schalke v Frankfurt         8/11

3 pts @ 2.88


 A.N.Other
Home Win - Brighton   4/11
Home Win - QPR        4/9

3 pts @ 1.97


 The Longshot
Both to Score - Cheltenham v Aldershot              4/6
Over 2.5 - Northampton v Macclesfield               8/11
Both NOT to Score - Real Madrid v Hercules     4/6
Home Win - Brighton                                          2/5
Both to Score - Hoffenheim v Dortmund              8/11

1 pt @ 11.30

Tuesday, March 8

Tuesdays Sports Bets

Sports Betting
  Top Bet
Both to Score - Leicester v Norwich        4/6
Over 2.5 - Accrington v Stockport           4/6

5 pts @ 2.78


 Next Best
Both to Score - Southend v Gillingham     8/11
Both to Score - Macclesfield v Crewe     1/2

4 pts @ 2.59


A.N.Other
Home Win - Accrington Stanley    4/6
Home Win - Tranmere                  4/5

4pt @ 3.00


 The Longshot
Top Bet & Next Best combined

1pt @ 7.2


Another steak dinner last night, going to turn into a feckin steak soon.  Tasted better than usual as it was paid for by a winning double: Deportivo to win combined with Blackpool/Chelsea both to score, 2/1 return.

Sunday, March 6

Long Weekend

 Training
Long weekend on the bike but necessary all the same.  Six and half hours on Saturday (yesterday) saw me reach the other side of Slieve Mann, via Shay Elliott and Sally Gap, retracing my route on the return leg.  Only 120km on the clock but 2,200m of climbing proved to be a recognisable improvement on the previous weeks 135km & 1800m climbing.  Route Here

The last 40km as usual was the most mundane section, but that's always the case, especially on the cold dreary days when the mist has settled on the mountains and you are cycling through a cloud.  I needed lights on my first pass of Sally Gap, but on the return the mist had lifted somewhat but was replaced by a cold breeze which turned my feet in to blocks of ice.  Six and a half hours is a long ride on your lonesome, thankfully I had decided to take my ipod which spurred me during the up tempo songs and broke the monotony on the long straights and seemingly endless countryside.  The weather makes such a  difference to the interpretation of the Wicklow wilderness.  I had also toyed with the idea of adding two laps of Wicklow Gap to the route but reckoned I was biting off more than I could chew at this stage of the year so refrained, and glad I did.

I wasn't long home before deciding not to cook for one, her beautiful self having travelled to her homeland for the weekend, and again visited the local steakhouse for my dinner (and starter and dessert).  I earned those calories so I was gonna enjoy them properly.  Good day all round.

I rose Sunday to take part in the ThinkBike spin, a mere 65km spin to Sally Gap via Djouce & Luggala.  The previous week I didn't feel up to the second Sunday spin of climbing, but this week I felt much stronger and tagged along.  I sat at the back for most if not all of the journey matching pace with the slower members of the group, which suited me fine.  To be honest, I'm not sure if I could have gone any faster if I tried, after Saturday's exertions.  By completing 65km on Sunday it clearly demonstrated an improvement in my endurance, recovery, and overall strength which is satisfying.  My ass hates me, or at least hates cycling, having spent over ten hours of the weekend sat upon what now feels like a razor blade (even though it is a comfortable enough saddle in its own right).

Current weight 13st 7.5 lbs, down from a starting weight of 14st 0.25lb.
Target weight for La Marmotte is 12st 7-10lb.

 Sports Betting
Sunday's soccer -3pts

I did have a Sunday TV double on Liverpool/Man Utd & Wolves/Spurs games which I hadn't posted, more for an interest when watching the games more than anything else but they were viable wagers nonetheless.  Both to Score double paid 2/1.  It looked a non event until Hernandez popped up in the 91st minute to score for Man U, to save my bacon in the first game.  I didn't have long to wait in the second fixture before collecting, it was 2-2 by half time, finishing 3-3.

There are midweek fixtures on Tuesday which will receive my attention between now and then.

Saturday, March 5

Sunday Sports Bets

Sunday 6-March Soccer bets are:

A.N.Other
Over 2.5 - Malaga v Osasuna      11/10
Over 2.5 - Ath Bilbao v Sevilla     4/5

3pts double @ 3.78  (2.78/1)


Saturday's Results:

Soccer             +3.84 pts
Greyhounds      -6 pts

Total P&L =  -2.16 pts

The longshot came close at 13.3/1, needing only Millwall to sneek a goal against Watford, unfortunately it never materialised.

Lots of trouble in dog races.  Tyrur Domingo took out Allowdale at the first bend, ending both their chances.  Broadstrand Lad missed the break and got wrote off at first bend also.  Tyrur Henry ran a stinker.

Friday, March 4

Weekend Sports Bets


 Sports Betting
Saturday's soccer bets are:

 Top Bet
Both To Score - Wycombe v Aldershot         4/5
Both To Score - M'Gladbach v Hoffenheim   8/15

5pts @ 2.76  (1.76/1 Double)
--------------------------------------------------------------

 Next Best
Over 2.5 - Hannover v Bayern Munich    8/13
Over 2.5 - Stockport v Oxford               10/11

4pts @ 3.08  (2.08/1 Double)
 --------------------------------------------------------------

 A.N.Other
Both To Score - Auxerre v PSG          Evs
Both To Score - Watford v Millwall     4/6

 3pts @ 3.33  (2.33/1 Double)
--------------------------------------------------------------
 A.N.Other
Over 2.5 - Peterborough v Exeter       1/2
Over 2.5 - Leeds v Doncaster             4/6

3pts @ 2.5  (1.5/1 Double)
--------------------------------------------------------------

 The Longshot
Both To Score - Wycombe v Aldershot     4/5
Over 2.5 - Stockport v Oxford                  10/11
Both To Score - Watford v Millwall          4/6
Over 2.5 - Peterborough v Exeter             1/2
Over 2.5 - Leeds v Doncaster                   4/6

1pt @ 14.32 (13.32/1 Accum)
--------------------------------------------------------------


Tote Gold Cup 2nd Round - Shelbourne Park
Some decent races lined up for the second round.

Heat 1 - Both of last week's fancies, Tyrur Domingo & Allowdale Prince, oppose each other in the first heat.  Tyrur will very likely go off favourite in this heat ,however, I have concerns over the number of dogs in this race that prefer to dive towards the rails during the run to the first bend.  This could cause some crowding on the inside.  Meanwhile, Alllowdale Prince in trap 6, arguably his favourite trap, will have the whole outside to himself.  Allowdale should be a decent price, around 4/1, and represents good value in a potentially hazardous race.

Trap 6 - Allowdale Prince 2pts Win


Heat 2 - Traps 1,2 &4 should dominate this race from start to finish.  They should go round the first 2 bends in close contention, and I expect trap 2 (Broadstrand Lad) to show his great back straight pace to take the lead down the far side and retain the advantage to the winning line.  Won't be a big price, 5/4 ish.

Trap 2 - Broadstrand Lad 2pts win


Heat 3 - Razdazl George will undoubtedly begin favourite in this race, but with more pace on his left tonight than the previous evening when he won, I'd prefer to watch rather than take an active part in the ring.  He is a rising star but will meet more trouble in this grade as he continues through the competition and will be interesting to see how he handles it.  No bet.


Heat 4 - I think whatever leads around the second bend in this race will probably win the race, and all have potential of doing so.  1,2&3 should have a little more speed than the others and from these three dogs I like the recent improvements in trap 2, Tyrur Henry.  This dog has huge gears and is capable of blowing the others away should he find his top form, and will be good value to boot at around 3/1.

Trap 2 - Tyrur Henry 2pts win

Wednesday, March 2

Step It Up

 Training
Tough cycle on Saturday, finished up with 135km under the belt and the legs were sore (aswell as the back, arms, ass, etc).  Got a puncture after 10km and hoped it wasn't a prelude of things to come, plus the only tube I had in the saddle bag was punctured too; had to borrow a tube from one of my cycling colleagues, which I must remember to replace on the next spin (note to self).  Fortunately, that was the only puncture of the day between the three of us on the outing.

I finished the last 40km alone, from just before Manor Kilbride to Sally Gap and descended to civilisation via Stocking Lane.  My chain came off approaching Manor Kilbride, which I combined with a nature break which left me a few mins behind the other two, who to my immediate amazement trudged on without waiting or showing any concern for my safety or whereabouts.  I suppose in hindsight I did have a phone which could have been used to contact them had I another puncture and no tubes, which would have been exactly the scenario in which I would have found myself.  In their defence, they had deadlines to meet, and their better halves probably have them pussy whipped so what can you do.  No drama.

I was rewarded for my efforts by my girlfriend with a nice fillet steak on Saturday evening at the local steakhouse, which is great value and does produce a mean lean fillet.  Of course I couldn't leave without my favourite desert (cheescake) before trudging home sliently chastising myself by humming the oompa loompa melody, and I didn't feel one bit guilty.  Thirty mins later and I was snoring my head off in le chambre.

Sunday morning, I rose early with the best intentions of joining the ThinBike.ie spin, however, thirty mins on the couch and heightening pains from the previous day's exertions gave me fair warning that I was not up to a 60km spin; a warning which I heeded thankfully, and watched the UFC I had recorded the previous night/early morning.  Next came Murphy's Law, Sod's Law, or whatever that law is, irony at any rate.  I decided to do a short 20km spin up the mountain as my Sunday solo, and before which I would take a trip to Thinkbike for a few tubes as I had none.  My initial thoughts were 'let's hope I dont get a puncture on the way there', but its only 3-4km from where I live so what are the chances.  Just in case I took the tube which had a slow puncture from the previous day from the bin and stuffed it into my jacket, anticipating it would last a couple of km, but sure I'd never need it anyway.  Wrong, 2km in to my short trip for tubes I approached what car's recognise as potholes, and cyclists would recognise as craters.  A late bunny hop to jump the hollow saw my front wheel easily clear the gap, but my back wheel landed exactly on the rim of the crater, three seconds later the rear wheel was as flat as a pancake.  Typical, go shopping for tubes and get a puncture on your way there.

I managed a sedate 25km on Sunday after everything and was tired right up until Tuesday evening.  This morning (Wednesday) I hit the gym at 6am and will replicate those efforts tomorrow morning and Friday morning also.  Saturday and Sunday will again see the bike brought to the fore.  Toying with the idea of tackling Shay Elliott & Slieve Mann, weather dependent of course.  Need to reduce my tendency to munch chocolate, three bars today, what am I playing at.  The harder I train the more I seem to think I can stuff my face with garbage, diet needs to be more strict from here on in.


 Sports Betting
Tyrur Domingo won his heat and is now 12/1 (from 20/1) to win the Tote Gold cup.  Allowdale Prince came third in his heat and is now (10/1) to lift the trophy.  Tyrur Carey was eliminated, after a bump at trap rise and losing interest after first bend traffic.  There are four heats on Saturday evening which I will review between now and then.

A winning football treble was selected on Tuesday evening, Exeter (both teams to score), Cheltenham (over 2.5), and Portsmouth (home win).  The plan was to bet it on the way home or when I got home bet it online.  Nope, went to the pub with the girlfriend  on the way home and forgot clean all about it. 
In future, instead of putting up a shortlist, which isn't a fair reflection of my choices as some of these I eliminate, I will list my actual bets, in a points format.  Each bet shall have between 0.5 and 5pts associated to it, higher points representing stronger opinions and/or better value inherent in the selection at a particular price.  The strategy will be less volatile than February's shortlisting, and will provide for longer term progressive returns, and not trying to build Rome in a day.  Season to date, showing an ROI of +37%, which I am hoping to improve upon.

I am in the position whereby I may be setting up a new online business with a colleague, a decision which will be finalised as yay or nay in the next seven days.  I have a few figures to review and analyse in order to reach the yay or nay decision, after testing the idea for the last 6 months.  At first glance, the total results are positive, not world beating but further delving into the numbers will reveal how much potential can be harnessed with some tweaking in key areas.  More to come.

Friday, February 25

Back to the grindstone

Training
After spending last weekend drinking Friday, Saturday, Sunday and a couple of quiet ones on Monday, I can categorically state the training took a few steps in the wrong direction.  Tuesday, I was back to work to make an honest living, it also proved to be the tail end of the dreaded drink downer, and the culmination of a guilty conscience; and feeling like Augustus Gloop from Willly Wonka and his infamous chocolate factory.

6am came early on Wednesday morning, after a quick breakfast I adorned the multicoloured and partially illuminous cycling gear laid out in wait from the previous night.  After glancing through the window it was obviously wet, but I wouldn't dare venture anywhere near the balcony for a real taste of temperature.  The last thing I wanted was another reason to go back to bed, which I was contemplating should truth be told. 

Thirty minutes later I was en route to Edmonston Rd and panting like a dying dog climbing to the viewing point.  It was surprisingly warm and the first taste of spring weather which I revelled in, along with a few stimulating tunes on my ipod (low volume of course).  As I climbed, the sun rose and my lights which where initially essential for guidance were merely flashing at oncoming traffic to make them aware of my presence as I reached the peak, the day was born.  A quick descent home, washed the bike and off to work feeling a lot better and content.

Thursday morning was an exact replica, another 20km+ to Viewing point via Edmonston Rd.  I shall add 150km to that tomorrow, my longest session of the season to date.  Route here.  Good news is, I will have company, two guys also attempting the Marmotte this year, its their route not mine.  1600m of climbing and around 7 hours in the saddle should burn a few calories no doubt.

Sunday I am planning on heading out with ThinkBike.ie, 60km route as a recovery, that's recovery as in wearing out the last of my legs until the following weekend.

Sports Betting
Soccer handed me my ass for February and it really pissed me off having so many nearly bets for 1-2k.  It still irks me as I write so I will be refraining from venturing a bet this weekend on any soccer games.  I shall still list a few potential predictions for tomorrow (Saturday) should anyone wish to further analyse the merits of their case.

Both Teams to Score
Bury v Crewe,  Accrington v Torquay, Brentford v Bristol Rovers, Oxford v Hereford, Barnet v Lincoln, Hoffenheim v Mainz

Greyhound racing, the Tote Gold Cup begins tomorrow evening (Saturday) at Shelbourne park and should prove to be a good night's racing.  Their are joint ante post favourites in the form of Bling Bling Buzz & Razldazl George both quoted at 8/1.  Full market here.  Both are pacey greyhounds in their own right but at 8/1 there is better value elsewhere.  Bling Bling Buzz has never raced competitively around Shelbourne and if he doesn't take to the track he'll be heading back to kennels tomorrow evening with the proverbial tail between his legs.  If he does take to Shelbourne (which I think he might) he will prove difficult to beat in Heat 2, at 9.00pm.
Razldazl George has undoubted ability and will progress to be top class greyhound should he avoid any injury woes, but with only 4 races under his belt it is asking quite a lot to take down a tournament of this quality so early in his career, especially at odds of 8/1.  My 3 fancies for tomorrow nights heats are as follows.

Heat 4 - Trap 2 :  Tyrur Carey
There could be some bumping early doors in this race as trap 5, Slippery Bob, prefers the rails and should venture towards trap four shortly after trap rise, potentially hampering both their chances of success.  Meanwhile, 1&2 can lead up on the inner, with two taking charge down the back straight and should prove hard to peg back should this be the case.  Tyur is lightly raced, but has an abundance of trials and this kennel's young dogs are always well schooled pre racing.

Heat 5 - Trap 5 : Allowdale Prince
This dog has won his last two races around the track and is in good form, and will certainly not be in need of the run.  Fast up, good back straight pace and cuts the third bend hard from outside to inside, he will be short priced and difficult to peg back with his usual smart pace to the corner and take charge from there, also not a lot of early pace from dogs on his immediate left.  The danger may lie with the two dog, Moe's Tavern, who also has some decent early pace.  His latest line of form can be ignored as he was wrote off during first bend trouble, but is rising in grade from A2, albeit he did romp home in the lower ranks.  With a little luck I would expect Allowdale to be a potential candidate for overall glory, currently priced at 12/1 to lift the trophy.

Heat 6 - Trap 1 : Tyrur Domingo
Lots of pace, likes the inside but not the sharpest when considering track craft, a little like a Ferrari without a steering wheel.  3&6 are potential threats to preventing glory for Tyrur, however, I would expect him to lead round or alongside the others and use the inside line to gain a length or two before entering the back straight where he can open up and take charge.   That's the plan at any rate, there is also some value in his ante post price of 20/1.



Friday, February 18

My gym sucks.......

Training
Took Monday off after two good sessions on the bike at the weekend, managed two days at the gym midweek which was a stretch to be honest.  Ever since I moved apartment I was forced to also locate a new gym.  My old gym was small with limited members, had a swimming pool and a studio with a punch bag.  It was also 50 metres from where I lived, all boxes checked, I never missed.

My new gym is huge, and it has about a billion members.  You can't turn around without bumping in to someone, tripping over countless dumb bells strewn aside like plastic cups at a concert.  Gotta queue for a machine, etc, man it sucks.  Plus there are so many posing idiots pumped up like Popeye overdosed on spinach if you know what I mean.  I really need to find a new gym.  I used go twice a day sometimes at my old place, now I can barely put in three days a week.  Anyway, the two days I got were short 45 min sessions but intensive as I could make it and I have definitely benefited from them which is a plus.

I'll be spending the weekend in the comfort of my girlfriend's home town, and also hooking up with a few mates from my home town to boot so the (liquid) calorie intake will soar and the exercise rapidly decline over the next 3 days (well it won't decline, it will just evaporate).  In my defence, I should be playing a few games of darts at the local watering hole, just a different form of sport but I shall still be an athlete in training.


Sports Betting
There are two greyhounds running tomorrow night at Shelbourne Park which I think have good chances.

Second Race - Trap 4 - Busters Choice
This dog has good early gears and is opposed by trap 6, for the third time recently, who four has beaten twice already and there is no reason to see why he cant make it a third time.  The other 4 opponents are all coming back after lay offs over the winter and could be in need of the run.  Even if they don't need the run the 4 dog is in good form and handles the track well, with a similar run from previous outings he should prove hard to stop.  Price wise he wont be big, I would probably think he'd return around evens or 6/4 at best.

Ninth Race - Trap 5 - Quick Lee
Lots of early pace in this race.  Five can lead the outside with 1 & 3 charging to the corner also, trap one doesn't stay too well and 3 is an obvious danger, however, the five has slightly more gears down the back and has a few lengths on the clock to boot. Should return around 2/1 - 5/2 depending upon support in the ring.


Tranmere were the value price of the midweeks soccer, however, I got a little greedy and combined them with Watford who leaked an early goal (4th minute), then a second soon after, and could eventually only muster a draw against the defensively woeful Preston.  Burton, had they scored, would have salvaged some profit for the evening but no success materialising from their corner either.  Still in the red for February so seeking some retribution from Saturday & Sunday's fixture list.  Shortlist below with some good value, in particular Crewe who are a good price to overcome Stevenage, personal favourites highlighted (29/1 accum), although I will have various combinations of the below.

Both Teams To Score
Leverkusen v Stuttgart
Colchester v Walsall
Stockport v Macclesfield
Portsmouth v Barnsley
Montpelier v Lille
Lecce v Juventus

Over 2.5 Goals
Leverkusen v Stuttgart
Colchester v Walsall
Peterboro v Tranmere

Home Wins
Udinese
Napoli
Crewe
Fiorentina
Millwall
Hannover

Monday, February 14

Beaten Docket

Training
Missed a night in the gym towards the end of the week, but I'm not too concerned as I managed two days out on the bike at the weekend.  Five hours and 110km on Saturday alongside a a new training buddy who is also training for La Marmotte.  Could begin to get competitive as we near the event possibly, however, I think I need to drop the pounds as this guy is small and lean, I've seen more meat on a butcher's knife, otherwise he'll leave me sitting on the climbs.  My day was good on Saturday, however, my training partners' was anything but.  We travelled to Dalkey to meet a third member of our group, why I'm not so sure because he was only the third member for about 30 mins before declaring himself unfit enough to continue with the likes of ourselves and set off on a detour to return home.  Its not like he was out with Stephen Roche and Sean Kelly for Christ's sake.

During this 30 mins as a trio I ventured the usual periodic glance behind to confirm the group was still in tact, not because I'm so quick that nobody can keep up, more logistics, traffic, accidents and of course punctures.  I quickly noticed there was now only two of us, myself and the 30 minute man; my Marmotte training partner had vanished like a fart in the wind.  Slowly, slowly for the next few minutes but still no sign of him catching up.  I retraced our route to find him repairing a puncture at the roadside, his third for the week he declared in a pissed off tone.  He had forgotten his pump so I produced my little hand pump and proceeded to inflate the deflated tyre, after he had inserted a new tube.  About 2 mins later with the wheel nearing the required pressure and my arm about to fall off with the effort, BANG!, the fucking tube blew up.  Christ, a fucking hand pump blew the tube, shit tubes those Continentals we reckoned, I retrieved a Schwalbe tube from my saddle bag and for the second time began the pump, pump, pump action of a man possessed.  And yes, we had already checked the tyre for debris, glass, etc.

That tube held until we neared Ashord, then the familiar cries of "Jesus, not again!", forewarned of another impending session with my hand pump, yep, another feckin puncture.  This time however, I cut a strip from the punctured tube and lined a particular section of the rim of his wheel where there was what appeared to be a manufacturing impairment (raised edge on the inside of the rim), which was probably nipping the tube, causing our anguish, or his anguish more like.  At least it was a dry day, would have been a lot more miserable had we been repairing the punctures in a downpour. 

After spending so much time repairing punctures we changed our route to avoid the bigger hills as it was closing in towards sunset, still a good spin though and I could feel it on Sunday when I ventured out again on the ThinBike club spin.  Sunday was my first time to scale "the wall", a hill near Djouce with gradient of 19% (according to my garmin), thankfully its not that long.  After two hours I was beginning to bonk and needed to stop at a shop for some well deserved chocolate which provided ample fuel to guide me home during the half hour following.  Resting up today, after being out for a meal last night treating the Mrs to a valentines dinner.

Reading a new book on training, or should I say my first book on training.  Whether I implement any of it or not only time will tell.

Sports Betting
No joy at the weekend, all dockets beaten.  Inter couldn't muster a goal against Juve (Juventus 1 v 0 Inter) for the four timer, both to score bet.  MK Dons, likewise, could only share the points with Brentford (1 - 1 draw) to scupper the home wins bet.  The greyhound longshot at 10/1 finished second to the favourite.  Happy with this bet as it required the fav to find a little trouble to enable a victory but such was not the case.  He also returned 5/1, half the odds available the day prior to the event.  Well, as I self proclaim many a time, 'can't win every day'.

February is titter tottering from profit to loss, currently back in loss territory.  There are a few games on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, English leagues and Champions League.  The Champions league games look tight enough, plus it becomes increasingly difficult predicting these games, especially for a win, draw, loss scenario, as they are played over two legs and team/management strategies play a large part. 

As a Spurs fan I will be shouting on Harrys men against the Italian so called giants AC Milan.  Spurs are quite capable on their day of lowering the flag of such mighty adversaries, however, it will be a tad more difficult without the very talented Gareth Bale.  They will still field a strong team and their opponents are ageing in a few departments which could prove to be their inherent weakness over the two legs.  I would be happy with a draw Tuesday evening, with everything to fight for at White Harte Lane during the second leg.

Same pattern as before, 'Both Teams to Score' & 'Home Wins' are the predictions midweek, below:

Both Teams To Score
Exeter v Swindon
Torquay v Burton Albion
Sheff Utd v Reading
Southend v Wycombe
Tranmere v Sheff Wed
Aldershot v Lincoln

Accumulator with first four pays approx 7/1
Accumulator with first five pays approx 12/1
Accumulator with all six pays approx 20/1


Home Wins
Tranmere
Hamburg
Watford

Treble pays approx 7/1

Thursday, February 10

Another Day, Another.......

Training
Put in another evening on the bike and another evening in the gym. Was heading towards Edmonston Rd again (where else would I be headed), with five lights and a high vis jacket as per usual, I'm all for the Christmas tree effect.  Better safe and blinding drivers than being knocked over by blind drivers.  The plan was to scale up the heights of the Viewing Point and descend Stocking Lane, returning home.  About an hour cycle and approx 20km and a few hundred metres climbing.

About half way up the hill I noticed a blinking red light up ahead, another cyclist was the obvious first thought and I was correct.  However, as I got closer the person was walking with their bike, a young woman, mid twenties.  She waved at me as I was approaching. "Hi, I'm looking for Ballinteer", she says, "think I might have taken a wrong turn".  No fucking shit you took a wrong turn I thought, you are heading up the mountain to pitch black wilderness, are you fucking stupid?  When I opened my mouth to speak my thoughts softened to "Christ, Ballinteer, you're going the wrong direction".
"Oh, can I keep going this way and turn off up ahead or is it just another hill?".
"The last place you want to be heading at this time of night is further up this hill."  I'm not one for generalisations but she was blond, just a fact I'm pointing out.

She informed me what part of Ballinteer she was looking for, I input the address in to the Garmin and gave her directions to return down the hill and take a right at the Roundabout (where there are lights and people around).  It's really silly things like this that's ends up with people going missing and nobody hearing from them ever again, wandering around the middle of nowhere like a sheep blindfolded with a flashing red light attached.  Her front light had died so I offered her spare batteries which I carry with me, unfortunately it was a USB charger that powered her dead Cat-eye.

I continued on for another km or so, and then got this real eerie feeling from my surroundings, not sure why nor what it was.  I have been up that road many times, day and night and never had much bother, but history has proven that it is good to follow my instincts.  I immediately turned around and retraced my route descending Edmonston Rd, deciding to finish the remainder of the hour cycle on the level roads below.  I also thought I could guide the lost lady to the plains below as she had no front light, probably something I should have offered initially, but there was no sign of anyone.  She must have had no problems finding her way back to civilisation thankfully.  I reached home 1 hour, 23km and one good deed later, happy with getting another midweek session in.  Planning on one more trip to the gym and two days cycling at the weekend.

Sports Betting
The midweek selections sailed in, the accumulator returning 7.5/1, I also added Exeter v Brenford, both to score, from the night before, which buffed it up to a healthy 14/1 winning bet.  Even though Exeter waited until 4 minutes into injury time to convince their fans they have what it takes to hit the onion bag, first minute or last, a goal is a goal.  That bet turned a losing February into a winning February for month to date.
This weekend's selections below:

Both Teams to Score
St Etienne v Lyon, Blackpool v Aston Villa, Juventus v Inter Milan, West Brom v West Ham, Valenciennes v Brest, PSG v Lens.

Accumulator on first 4 selections pays circa 11/2
Accumulator on first 5 selections pays circa 12/1
Accumulator on all 6 selections pays circa 28/1

You can increase that to odds of 183/1 by adding:
Aldershot v Macclesfield, Barnet v Torquay, Charlton v Peterborough, Walsall v Bournemouth.

Home Wins
Arsenal, Lille, MK Dons, Oxford
Accumulator pays circa 15/2

Shelbourne Park - Race 10 - 10.00pm Saturday Night
This is the Joe Dunne Memorial Puppy Final, and with puppy comps anything can happen in a final.  The six dog is favourite, puppy derby winner, and worthy to be favourite but not at skinny odds of 4/5.  This is way too short for me.  On the other hand the dog in trap three, Mutual Decision, is a huge price at 10/1.  He won his semi final and from watching the videos I can see him leading the inside to the first corner and coming off the second bend in front.  He hasn't the fastest pace along the back straight and 2 & 6 will be baring down on him approaching the third bend.  Both 2 & 6 will track out on the back straight as the 3 dog rails and they will have no room on the inside, hopefully 2 & 6 will collide at the third fighting for the same ground leaving 3 with a small lead which he can maintain to the line as he stays on strongly enough. At 10/1 odds I would bet this every day of the week, great value, and worthy of a small bet.

Monday, February 7

Tale of the Scales

Training
Two nights in the gym, relatively easy work outs if I'm honest and only one day on the bike at the weekend. The wind was howling like a wolf on speed Friday night and I was doubting the validity of getting out for a few hours on Saturday without risking life and limb getting blown all over the road. Thankfully, the wind had receded by Saturday morning and was replaced by a dreary miserable wet, actually very wet, gloomy day. The whole day had a feeling of dusk about it, such was the darkness of the sky but I carefully located my happy glasses and set off wrapped up like an onion hoping to stay out for as long as possible.

When I first bought the bike and all the paraphernalia that accompanied it, one item purchased was a pair of Oakley jawbones (215 squid) for those sunny days and to make you look cool and feel faster than you really are. Getting blinded by the sun was never a worry throughout the summer months, however, put those bad boys on on a day like Saturday past and its like Prozac in reverse. Its like cycling blindfolded, and makes a depressingly bad weather day even more gloomy and depressing than before. To counter this I visited the store that has a little of everything and a lot of nothing, yes, our good old friend Argos, who efficiently relieved me of €14.99 and I now had a pair of 'Happy Glasses'. Insert the yellow lenses and the gloomiest day is now bright and cheerful, and your mood lifted, for a fraction of the price of the designer what nots.


Off to Edmonston Rd again and towards Sally Gap, only to encounter lots of water running over the road at Glencree which put me off climbing the last hundred metres up to the gap, so I decided to play it safe and descended to Enniskerry. The lower plains were fine with nice comfortable temperatures, but it began to chill somewhat as I rose to Glencree so my mind was made up to stay lower down. Plus if the weather turned to Mr Nasty I wouldn't be too far from home if I stayed this side of the hills. From Enniskerry up the main road towards Stepaside, turned off at the roundabout and up by Johnny Foxes and Pineforest Road to Viewing Point for the second time. Descended stocking lane with the intention of executing another loop of Edmonston, Cruagh, Stocking lane but I felt like a drowned rat at this point and my feet were freezing. My weakest link is the feet, once they are wet its the beginning of the end.

Overshoes aren't worth a monkeys as far as keeping the feet dry is concerned. I need to invest in a pair of waterproof cycling shoes if such contraptions exists, maybe a cross between a pair of Sidi's and a pair of wellies would suffice.
I sauntered home with circa 60km and 3 hours in the saddle, determined that Sunday would be another opportunity to get the legs turning. Yeah right, I could barely get to sleep Saturday night with the racket the wind was making and when Sunday morning was no better there was little point in venturing out in a gale, safety first; or maybe its laziness first and safety as a valid excuse. After the cycle I duly decided to hop on the scales and test how truthful the better half is when she constantly maintains I'm losing weight. I was pleasantly surprised to read 13st 8.5lb on the display, down from 14st 0.25lb and still having a few beers at the weekend to boot and a night dining out, result!

Pet Hates
Watched the rugby Saturday afternoon with a mate and his girlfriend, then we all joined my girlfriend afterwards to watch 'The Fighter' in the cinema at 6.30. Save yourself 2 hours of your life and don't get tricked by the advert proclaiming its the best thing since sliced bread, or Rocky, or whatever they claim. Average at best.

One thing that really shakes my palm trees the wrong way are doormen with attitude and an over inflated ego of self importance. After leaving the cinema all four in our party decided to try out the new bar that has opened recently in Rathmines, called 'Copan'.
On approach it was quite easily to see it wasn't that busy as there were four doormen loitering outside, looking menacingly at passers by like they were considering whether to mug some unfortunate soul, a bit like something you would see in the Sopranos; if Scorcese himself jumped out and shouted "action!" you wouldn't have batted and eyelid.

I led the group and attempted to weave my way through the scrum of bouncers when the small fat foreign one stepped into my path. "Where are you coming from?" he spouted, "the cinema", I replied. He repeated himself for some reason, "where are you coming from", so likewise I repeated myself, "the cinema", I again replied. I was already getting pissed of with this asshole, what fucking business of his is it where I'm coming from. Before I gained my professional qualifications I worked for approx 7 years in the bar and hotel industry, both behind the bar and on the door. When I come across guys like this it really is annoying, they just give everyone a bad name.

Not happy with my first two answers he then asked "where do you live?". At this point I calmly looked at the others in the group and said "Lets go somewhere else", thinking to myself 'what a fucking prick to have on the door of a new bar with zero regulars greeting people'. Its bad enough that publicans rob you blind with their prices but now we have to pass a fucking questionnaire in order to be privileged enough to allow them the pleasure to over charge us? That's one bar I wont be spending any money in.

As I walked away one of the girls questioned why he asks such irrelevant questions, 'its a standard question' he retorted, and right on cue, two girls walked straight past and into the premises without answering any of his so called standard questions. I don't know where he worked previously if he thinks that is standard. I would love to take him up to the north of our Emerald Isle and stand him at a door and let him ask the same random questions, I would be surprised if he made it past midnight intact.
At the next local watering hole we were warmly greeted with a kind hello and and a warm smile by their doorman, which could explain why Copan was empty and Rody Bolands busy.


Sports Betting
Damn you Hereford, I'm gonna say that again, damn you Hereford! Five out of six of the 'Both Teams to Score' selections were triumphant only to be let down by the Hereford 0 v 1 Lincoln result. That left me with 3 nearly winning accumulators priced at 6/1, 12/1 & 20/1.

Another option may be to bet 6 x five timers and 1 x six timer for 7 bets and reduce the stakes for each individual bet. That way any 5 winning would likely double your money, and all six winning would return somewhere in the region of 14 times your original total outlay (obviously these returns will vary slightly with varying prices). Food for thought at any rate. Not much happening football wise midweek, other than internationals, which are only worth betting if you have too much money and need relieving of it, alternatively stay as far away as possible. There are a few League 1 & 2 games taking place Tuesday evening. Might partake in a 7.5/1 accumulator (4 selections), should further analysis agree with the stats.

Huddersfield to win
Leyton Orient v Swindon - Over 2.5 goals
Hereford v Macclesfield - Both teams to score
Morcambe v Alderdshot - Both teams to score

Remember Hereford, you owe me!

Thursday, February 3

Just One More Goal

Training
Not much to report, flat spin to the heights of Phoenix park, legs felt good even after the weekend where I was reluctantly attempting to ruin all the good work from the wrong end of a beer bottle. Slow pace, middle range HR, yet my average pace did increase so signs of improvement. I know I am dropping weight but not venturing anywhere near the scales just yet. Dropping weight can be deceiving, as you burn fat you gain muscle, yet the weight doesn't fall as much as you would have assumed, therefore I can do without staring at the numbers on my scales in disbelief. I'll let the trousers and the shirts whisper their approval as I begin to get lost in them.
There will be 2 nights in the gym to add, plus the Weekend's spins.




Sports Betting
Midweek footie is like Jekyll & Hyde, all goes according to predictions or it chews you up and spits you out like used chewing gum. It was all going according to plan, except I just needed one more goal on Tuesday, and yes, on Wednesday too.

5 of the 6 'Both Teams to Score' I listed came in. I had 3 accumulators, the first 4 teams, the first 5 teams & the first 6 teams. First 4 steamed in, the 6th was up and now I was waiting on QPR v Portsmouth to collect a nice Little earner from a small outlay. Pompey did everything but score apparently, finishing QPR 2 v 0 Portsmouth.......... still small profit for the evening.

Wednesday, got a mail from a colleague who delves into the footie roller coaster himself. He doesn't know it but his worst bets are the Draw No Bet market (I record his selections and assess them for trends and profitability). Every time he picks a team for Draw No Bet, they get hammered, its no joke. He recommended Blackburn ( versus Spurs) & Blackpool (versus West Ham), both Draw No Bet. Off the top of my head the Blackburn bet was a no no straight away, however, I may have leaned towards Blackpool had I been forced to release a prediction. That suddenly changed to 'Spurs & West Ham were now bankers' because he fancied their opponents with the disastrous 'Draw No Bet' prediction.

I got adventurous and added Liverpool (won), Bolton (won), Fulham (won), and Man City (draw) for an 87/1 accum. Come on Man City....just one more goal!!! No joy. Was only a small bet but it would have been a handy 1k+ on a Wednesday evening..... small loss for the evening.

My stats analysis programme has thrown more shortlisted fixtures than I can shake the proverbial stick at so will list the highest 6 ranked (and do a crazy bet myself including them all).

This Weekend's Shortlist:

Over 2.5 Goals
M'Gladbach v Stuttgart, Peterboro v Southampton, Hereford v Lincoln, Sevilla v Malaga, Barcelona v Ath Madrid, Rotherham v Crewe.
Accumulator (6) pays circa 15/1

Both Teams To Score
M'Gladbach v Stuttgart, Hereford v Lincoln, Almeria v Espanyol, Carlisle v Walsall, Auxerre v Lille, Exeter v Huddersfield
Accumulator with first 4 pays circa 6/1
Accumulator with first 5 pays circa 12/1
Accumulator with all 6 pays circa 20/1


I'll probably bet the Both To Score accums, and add another 12 teams on top for an adventurous monster accum of 18 teams returning 15,400/1, has to be a sure thing, bye bye work, hello New York!

If you want the other 12 games, they are - Portsmouth, Montpelier, Inter, Sevilla, Morecambe, Wigan, Northampton, Chesterfield, Peterborough, Hoffenheim, Southend, Villareal.

Cross those fingers now.

Monday, January 31

A Lazy Week

Training

At I least I got 3 nights in the gym, which I quickly negated by drinking Friday, Saturday & Sunday. Being away for the weekend it was obvious there would be no bike time, and all drink time so a backward step for the week no doubt.


At least my new tyres arrived, and arrived before me, perched against the front door upon arrival. Thankfully they only arrived on Monday a few hours before me, and not Friday, otherwise they would have been sitting outside the apartment all weekend making everyone aware that nobody was home. How fucking stupid are postmen?


Anyway, the tyres, Continental Grand Prix 4000's (red) were swiftly adorning the fulcrum zeroes, red on red, lovely. I took pleasure dumping the ragged Schwalbe Ultremos. Its strange, the Schwalbes eroded so quickly yet I never punctured once, they went completely out of shape and warped quicker than the tyre wore down. They were lying in the cupboard for about a year before I used them, and if I remember correctly there was a recall at some stage back then so I could have purchased a faulty set. I may invest in a pair for La Marmotte all the same. The Conti's will keep me going in the mean time.


Back training tomorrow again, probably a spin on the bike, then hit the gym wed, Thur, Fri, back on the bike Sat & Sun. That's the plan, whether I stick to it is another story which will be told at a later date.

Sports Betting
The over 2.5 selections came in on Saturday, with 4 from 5 winning on the both to score shortlist, however, the losing selection (Lille v Lens - 1-0) I had included in my accumulator. One Lens goal the difference between -135 or +585, it never arrived. Still showed small profit for January so cant complain.


Tuesday (1 Feb) & Wednesday (2 Feb) shortlist, include and exclude at your own discretion.


Both Teams To Score
Southend v Oxford, Torquay v Hereford, Exeter v Southampton, Peterborough v Sheff Wed, QPR v Portsmouth, Aldershot v Barnet


Over 2.5 Goals
Peterborough v Sheff Wed, QPR v Portsmouth, Watford v Crystal Palace, Torquay v Hereford


Home Wins
Roma, Watford, Peterborough, Man Utd, Udinese, Bournemouth

Tuesday, January 25

Sports Betting

Since I was 14 and began working for a bookmaker at the local Greyhound Track, I was forever masquerading as the mad mathematician, compiling formulae to predict the winners of the next nights greyhound racing, and make my millions, alongside delving into the Sport of Kings for a period, revelling in selecting 3 Grand National winners on the trot among others. Armed with a pen, paper, calculator and the bible (the racing post form guide), I spent hours formulating my selections. Meanwhile, informing my mother that all homework was done... little did she know this was my homework.

Years on, I have swapped my pen, paper and calculator for a slightly more modern approach. Now armed with Microsoft Excel and VBA programming the formulae have evolved into statistical analysis and algorithms comprised of various and numerous macros. The pen is not mightier than the computer I am glad to say.

I have since dropped horses from my repertoire and added soccer. My main Sports for betting are now soccer and greyhound racing.

Sports betting is heaven and hell, and everything in between. One day you are elated, have the Midas touch, and you cant go wrong. The next you are dragged to the deepest depths of your sanity questioning your ability to predict anything correctly. The level of elation and despair which you operate at is directly related to the stakes you wager and how affordable they are in relation to your financial position. Bet relatively small and insignificant stakes, you will rarely despair, but also rarely be elated. Unless you do a lot of homework, and know your sport very well, alongside being able to price your own selections independently, I recommend keeping it small. Once you begin to raise the stakes enough to elevate you beyond the financial comfort zone where emotion rules the roost, you are on a roller coaster ride with a crashing ending, emotional betting is the worst type of betting, worse than loyalty betting, and it takes losing to realise this and produce the ability to suffocate it when it rears its ugly head, and it always will.


In order to win, you need to first accept to lose. You cannot win everyday, its impossible, accept losing days for what they are, and if they niggle at the back of your mind alongside the "what ifs" and "could have's", refrain from betting until they are gone, otherwise rational thought is clouded by emotional betting and chasing losses. Even the professional life long punters have winning and losing years, and a fortune of ups and downs in between.


For the soccer end of things, I concentrate on various leagues, namely:

Premiership, Championship, League 1, League 2, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, French Championnat.

Some leagues will show certain traits, Bundesliga is good for goals (63% Over 2.5 goals), French Championnat for draws (35% games drawn), La Liga for home wins (55%). You can follow the league stats and carry it down into particular teams in that league, for example keep your Bundesliga bets to over 2.5 goals but be selective according to the individual team stats within the league, among other variables.

With so much volatility in the Win, Lose, Draw market this season to date, it seems the money lies in goals, especially in my two favourite markets:


1. Both Teams To Score - both teams to score at anytime in the match.

2. Over 2.5 Goals - the sum of both teams goals add to over 2.5 (i.e. 3 goals or more in the game).

I have been and done the thousand euro swings, I now prefer (while working at least) to reduce the anxiety to levels were I can enjoy the sport for what it is alongside the extra income it generates. I haven't decided my final bets nor betting strategies for this weekend, but my shortlist is comprised of the below:

Over 2.5 Goals
Hercules v Barcelona, Walsall v Bristol, Leverkusen v Hannover (Fri), Sheff Wed v Hereford, Colchester v Peterborough (Fri).

Both Teams To Score

Valienciennes v Lyon, Lille v Lens, Juventus v Udinese, Walsall v Bristol, Rochdale v Charlton, Oxford v Cheltenham.

Here We Go Again.....

La Marmotte 2011....

Signed up and registered, accommodation booked, flight to book yet but will do so soon, then its purely focusing on training until the first Saturday in July where I'll line up alongside 7,000 other crazy people and assault 4 of the alps on a bike.



Last years Marmotte was easily the toughest day I have ever had on a bike, and I'm hoping it will remain the toughest for ever more amen. It was the only time in my life where I detested cycling for a relatively short period of time, and vowed never to sit in the saddle again....however, this year my planning and preparation will be totally superior in both quality and quantity compared to last year.

Last years training was sporadic and inconsistent, primarily due to 3 reasons (or should I say excuses) beyond my control.


1. The weather - I didn't get out as early in the year as I had hoped for due to the weather and all the freezing temperatures it brought with it, and dangerous road conditions, especially in the hills. This year I have already started which will give me a good 6 weeks head start on last year, thumbs up on number one.


2. Illness - I was laid up for approx 3 weeks with flu like symptoms last year, which admittedly isn't a lot but (another excuse) after 3 weeks on your ass it takes another 2 to get back to where you were before you were put on your ass, so it definitely didn't help. Touch wood, this wont be an issue this year, and therefore it's thumbs up on number 2.


3. Free Time to Cycle - Last year I began working in a new job, which involved working 2 weeks per month abroad, which obviously meant 2 weeks per month eating out on expenses, and drinking out (some on expenses, some not). This year its full time home, no travelling... thumbs up on number 3.


Taking the above 3 points into consideration there is absolutely no excuse for failing to finish the course this year (I hope). What time I am expecting to achieve........any time before dark will do me fine. I have one extra incentive to climb Alpe Duez at the finish this year, my hotel is at the top of it, so whether I cycle or walk it I'll be getting over the line at some stage :)


Training to date
Only 3 longish spins on the road to date over the last 3 weeks - 60, 70 & 90km, two of which involved the mountains. They were rather meagre average paced jaunts but its distance I want right now so it will steadily increase over the next month or 6 weeks to the point where I am doing 150km+ every Saturday. I will use Sundays as a recovery ride with the ThinkBike.ie club spins. They leave from outside the shop in Rathmines at 9.30am every Sunday and are handy and enjoyable, good bunch of people.


Weekdays should see me concentrating on Gym work, swimming and some hill repeats (most likely Edmonston road & stocking lane). I'll throw in the odd TT type training also during week nights and track my progress.


Starting Weight was a puffy 14st 1/4lb, my heaviest weight carried ever. Since I have started cycling I have put on weight, or maybe that should read "since I started drinking and eating out more I have put on weight", which just coincided with cycling.
Anyway, target weight for Marmotte is 12st 7lb, fingers crossed and stomach stapled its achievable.


That's the story so far, will update with training on a weekly basis, and some other ranting in between......


Adh Mor Ort.