A Lazy Week

Training

At I least I got 3 nights in the gym, which I quickly negated by drinking Friday, Saturday & Sunday. Being away for the weekend it was obvious there would be no bike time, and all drink time so a backward step for the week no doubt.

At least my new tyres arrived, and arrived before me, perched against the front door upon arrival. Thankfully they only arrived on Monday a few hours before me, and not Friday, otherwise they would have been sitting outside the apartment all weekend making everyone aware that nobody was home. How fucking stupid are postmen?

Anyway, the tyres, Continental Grand Prix 4000's (red) were swiftly adorning the fulcrum zeroes, red on red, lovely. I took pleasure dumping the ragged Schwalbe Ultremos. Its strange, the Schwalbes eroded so quickly yet I never punctured once, they went completely out of shape and warped quicker than the tyre wore down. They were lying in the cupboard for about a year before I used them, and if I remember correctly there was a recall at some stage back then so I could have purchased a faulty set. I may invest in a pair for La Marmotte all the same. The Conti's will keep me going in the mean time.

Back training tomorrow again, probably a spin on the bike, then hit the gym wed, Thur, Fri, back on the bike Sat & Sun. That's the plan, whether I stick to it is another story which will be told at a later date.

Sports Betting

The over 2.5 selections came in on Saturday, with 4 from 5 winning on the both to score shortlist, however, the losing selection (Lille v Lens - 1-0) I had included in my accumulator. One Lens goal the difference between -135 or +585, it never arrived. Still showed small profit for January so cant complain.

Tuesday (1 Feb) & Wednesday (2 Feb) shortlist, include and exclude at your own discretion.

Both Teams To Score

Southend v Oxford, Torquay v Hereford, Exeter v Southampton, Peterborough v Sheff Wed, QPR v Portsmouth, Aldershot v Barnet

Over 2.5 Goals

Peterborough v Sheff Wed, QPR v Portsmouth, Watford v Crystal Palace, Torquay v Hereford

Home Wins

Roma, Watford, Peterborough, Man Utd, Udinese, Bournemouth

Sports Betting

Since I was 14 and began working for a bookmaker at the local Greyhound Track, I was forever masquerading as the mad mathematician, compiling formulae to predict the winners of the next nights greyhound racing, and make my millions, alongside delving into the Sport of Kings for a period, revelling in selecting 3 Grand National winners on the trot among others. Armed with a pen, paper, calculator and the bible (the racing post form guide), I spent hours formulating my selections. Meanwhile, informing my mother that all homework was done... little did she know this was my homework.

Years on, I have swapped my pen, paper and calculator for a slightly more modern approach. Now armed with Microsoft Excel and VBA programming the formulae have evolved into statistical analysis and algorithms comprised of various and numerous macros. The pen is not mightier than the computer I am glad to say.

I have since dropped horses from my repertoire and added soccer. My main Sports for betting are now soccer and greyhound racing.

Sports betting is heaven and hell, and everything in between. One day you are elated, have the Midas touch, and you cant go wrong. The next you are dragged to the deepest depths of your sanity questioning your ability to predict anything correctly. The level of elation and despair which you operate at is directly related to the stakes you wager and how affordable they are in relation to your financial position. Bet relatively small and insignificant stakes, you will rarely despair, but also rarely be elated. Unless you do a lot of homework, and know your sport very well, alongside being able to price your own selections independently, I recommend keeping it small. Once you begin to raise the stakes enough to elevate you beyond the financial comfort zone where emotion rules the roost, you are on a roller coaster ride with a crashing ending, emotional betting is the worst type of betting, worse than loyalty betting, and it takes losing to realise this and produce the ability to suffocate it when it rears its ugly head, and it always will.

In order to win, you need to first accept to lose. You cannot win everyday, its impossible, accept losing days for what they are, and if they niggle at the back of your mind alongside the "what ifs" and "could have's", refrain from betting until they are gone, otherwise rational thought is clouded by emotional betting and chasing losses. Even the professional life long punters have winning and losing years, and a fortune of ups and downs in between.

For the soccer end of things, I concentrate on various leagues, namely:

Premiership, Championship, League 1, League 2, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, French Championnat.

Some leagues will show certain traits, Bundesliga is good for goals (63% Over 2.5 goals), French Championnat for draws (35% games drawn), La Liga for home wins (55%). You can follow the league stats and carry it down into particular teams in that league, for example keep your Bundesliga bets to over 2.5 goals but be selective according to the individual team stats within the league, among other variables.

With so much volatility in the Win, Lose, Draw market this season to date, it seems the money lies in goals, especially in my two favourite markets:

1. Both Teams To Score - both teams to score at anytime in the match.

2. Over 2.5 Goals - the sum of both teams goals add to over 2.5 (i.e. 3 goals or more in the game).

I have been and done the thousand euro swings, I now prefer (while working at least) to reduce the anxiety to levels were I can enjoy the sport for what it is alongside the extra income it generates. I haven't decided my final bets nor betting strategies for this weekend, but my shortlist is comprised of the below:

Over 2.5 Goals
Hercules v Barcelona, Walsall v Bristol, Leverkusen v Hannover (Fri), Sheff Wed v Hereford, Colchester v Peterborough (Fri).

Both Teams To Score

Valienciennes v Lyon, Lille v Lens, Juventus v Udinese, Walsall v Bristol, Rochdale v Charlton, Oxford v Cheltenham.

Here We Go Again.....

La Marmotte 2011....

Signed up and registered, accommodation booked, flight to book yet but will do so soon, then its purely focusing on training until the first Saturday in July where I'll line up alongside 7,000 other crazy people and assault 4 of the alps on a bike.



Last years Marmotte was easily the toughest day I have ever had on a bike, and I'm hoping it will remain the toughest for ever more amen. It was the only time in my life where I detested cycling for a relatively short period of time, and vowed never to sit in the saddle again....however, this year my planning and preparation will be totally superior in both quality and quantity compared to last year.

Last years training was sporadic and inconsistent, primarily due to 3 reasons (or should I say excuses) beyond my control.


1. The weather - I didn't get out as early in the year as I had hoped for due to the weather and all the freezing temperatures it brought with it, and dangerous road conditions, especially in the hills. This year I have already started which will give me a good 6 weeks head start on last year, thumbs up on number one.


2. Illness - I was laid up for approx 3 weeks with flu like symptoms last year, which admittedly isn't a lot but (another excuse) after 3 weeks on your ass it takes another 2 to get back to where you were before you were put on your ass, so it definitely didn't help. Touch wood, this wont be an issue this year, and therefore it's thumbs up on number 2.


3. Free Time to Cycle - Last year I began working in a new job, which involved working 2 weeks per month abroad, which obviously meant 2 weeks per month eating out on expenses, and drinking out (some on expenses, some not). This year its full time home, no travelling... thumbs up on number 3.


Taking the above 3 points into consideration there is absolutely no excuse for failing to finish the course this year (I hope). What time I am expecting to achieve........any time before dark will do me fine. I have one extra incentive to climb Alpe Duez at the finish this year, my hotel is at the top of it, so whether I cycle or walk it I'll be getting over the line at some stage :)


Training to date
Only 3 longish spins on the road to date over the last 3 weeks - 60, 70 & 90km, two of which involved the mountains. They were rather meagre average paced jaunts but its distance I want right now so it will steadily increase over the next month or 6 weeks to the point where I am doing 150km+ every Saturday. I will use Sundays as a recovery ride with the ThinkBike.ie club spins. They leave from outside the shop in Rathmines at 9.30am every Sunday and are handy and enjoyable, good bunch of people.


Weekdays should see me concentrating on Gym work, swimming and some hill repeats (most likely Edmonston road & stocking lane). I'll throw in the odd TT type training also during week nights and track my progress.


Starting Weight was a puffy 14st 1/4lb, my heaviest weight carried ever. Since I have started cycling I have put on weight, or maybe that should read "since I started drinking and eating out more I have put on weight", which just coincided with cycling.
Anyway, target weight for Marmotte is 12st 7lb, fingers crossed and stomach stapled its achievable.


That's the story so far, will update with training on a weekly basis, and some other ranting in between......


Adh Mor Ort.