Long Live 'Long Run'

Long Run was to be my biggest bet of the festival's four days.  Firstly because it was time for the older horses to show their age, and the youngblood to come through to take over the mantle of King of the Hill, and the form book stood by such a scenario.  The second was becasue day two and three were so crap I needed a way out of the hole I had dug for myself.

Being decidely conservative in my approach, I logged on the night before to find Paddy Power quoting Long Run at 9/2, with Insured 3 places at 7/2 which I thought was huge given previous results at Kempton.  However, given my previous two days results I wasn't about to preach my opinion as being a sure thing and quietly declared these thoughts to the privacy of me, myself and I.

Insured 3 places means you get your money back if he is second or third and paid the quoted price if he wins.  I decided I'd bet the insured 3 places.  When I logged on the next morning before heading out for a cycle, it had reduced from 7/2 to 11/4, three quarters of a point was not an inconsiderate amount of cash given the amount staked, but what can you do.  I placed the bet and headed out for a 3 hour cycle.

Upon my return I retreated to the couch , turned up the surround sound and mimicked every action of Sam Whaley-Cowen (the jockey) as he covered every blade of grass on the new course.  Had I a whip in hand the couch would be threadbare and ragged, get in there you good thing.

On the soccer front, tonight I will bet a treble:

Over 2.5 - Gladbach v Kaiserlautern 4/6

Both to Score - Chesterfield v Rotherham 4/6

Both to Score - Southend v Hereford 4/6

3pts @ 4.63

Cheltenham continued

In Greek mythology the Sphinx baffled travellers with her unanswerable riddle – eventually it was solved by Oedipus and the Sphinx had to commit suicide. Had she instead asked travellers to name a winner of any of the 20 runner handicaps at Cheltenham she may still be alive today.

From the time Oscar's Well clattered the last hurdle, on day two, while in contention for at least a place, my selections have been cursed ever since, and curse was exactly what I did, sitting at work, headphones on, excel on one screen and RTE player on the other.  The whole office were no doubt enlightened to hear the "ohaaaw, Fuck ya" I bellowed as he hit the final obstacle. 

Day three, my only bet was a double on Poquelin & Big Bucks, and not even I can stop the mighty Big Bucks from winning his third World Hurdle in as many years.

Tomorrow my only bet will be in the Gold Cup, I have decided the poor unfortunate equine chaser that will fall victim to my betting curse shall be "Long Run", I apologise to all connections in advance for placing the stoppers on him.

Training
Today I managed a short two and a half hours on the bike, which consisted of a few loops of Edmonston Rd/Stocking Lane.  After last week when I reached the initial climb and felt lifeless, it was a pleasant reversal of form to feel quite good after a week's rest.  The legs were strong and I kept the gear ratio higher than normal in order to build the required strength in the legs.  A short 45km in total, but more intensive climbing than average.

The weather shall decide my direction and distance tomorrow, currently contemplating visiting Slieve Mann for the second time this season.  I think we shall become good friends between now and the first Saturday in July when the Alps come to the fore, and crucify thousands of  (select your own word) brave/mad/idiotic cyclists on their mission to scale four of them.

Cheltenham Day Two

All my hard work at Cheltenahm day one was sucked up by the soccer yesterday evening.
Seconditis

Spirit Son (2nd)
Caroles Legacy (2nd)
Garde Champetre & A New Story (2nd & 3rd)
Quevega (won)
Peddlers Cross & Menorah (2nd & nowhere)

Fortunately I had an each way treble which pulled out 12 points profit for the day (Caroles Legacy, Tullamore Dew, A New Story).

Then it got all sucked up by the soccer, 1 1/2 out of two on both doubles, longshot also lost for a nine point loss, plus I had a 2pt double on Man Utd and Bayern.  Even though Inter's first goal was offside the bet still would have lost.  -11 pts on soccer, +1 pt for the day.  Feels like I lost a fortune, ha.

Todays fancies at Cheltenham are:

1.30 Beshabar
2.05 Oscars Well
2.40 Time For Rupert
3.20 Mater Minded
4.00 Call The Police
4.40 Plan A
5.15 Raise The Beat

My first bet will be an each way accum on the first 6 which pays 250k+ if they all win, should not be too much trouble I hope.

Cheltenham

It's that time again, when everyone turns their attention to the equine cream of the crop for 4 days in March, whether they follow racing regularly or not.  I'll have a few small bets tomorrow but I'm no expert on the horsey front so handle with caution.  My amateur selections shall consist of :

1.30 Spirit Son
2.05 Medermit (nap)
2.40 Caroles Legacy
3.20 Menorah (treble)
4.00 A New Story
4.40 Quevega (nb)
5.15 Tullamore Dew


On the soccer front, clawed back 4 pts on sunday and another 3.7pts tonight via a 2pt double (Norwich/Bristol & Getafe/Bilbao Both to score double @ 2.88).

Tomorrows soccer bets below:


Over 2.5 - Sheff Wed v Peterborough
Both to Score - Crewe v Southend

4pts @ 2.36
---------------------------------------------

Both to Score - Ipswich v Watford
Both to Score - Macclesfield v Lincoln

4pts @ 2.78
---------------------------------------------

Longshot
Both the above bets combined.

1pt @ 6.55

Gazumped!

 Training

My initial intention of revisiting Slieve Mann & Shay Elliott on Saturday was wandering wearily in my mind when those well informed meteorologists predicted snow, or at least very low temperatures.  The need to visit the far reaches of Glenmalure subsided rapidly, and was replaced by the vision of hill repeats of Edmonston Rd/Stocking Lane as my Saturday training. 

Leaving my comfortable abode at 9am, my thoughts en route to Edmonston were summarising the day ahead as 45 mins (approx) per loop, times 6 loops plus 30mins there and back total, should see me arrive home for 2pm, showered and changed in time for the football scores to begin streaming in.

In actual fact, after 20 mins on the bike and beginning the climb of Edmonston Rd I felt exhausted, as if I was finishing a five hour cycle instead of beginning one.  My legs were as weak as water, couldn't get into a rythym and just wanted to go back to bed, which is exactly what I did after another 20 mins of climbing.  I didn't even make the turn off to descend Stocking Lane, I simply turned about face and descended Edmonston.  The mind was screaming onward to Slieve Mann, but the body ruled the roost and guided me home for a surprisngly needed rest day.  I'll do the ThinkBike spin tomorrow.

 Sports Betting

Poor results today a the soccer, -14pts on posted bets.  Sometimes I follow my own advice and sometimes I stray.  Today I also bet Bolton to beat Birmingham once I saw the line ups thinking there was some value in their price; the profit was soon gobbled up by my Over 2.5 bet losing in the Man Utd/Arsenal clash.  How this bet failed to win is a mystery given the chances in the second half.

I then bet Real Madrid to win to nil, which was in hindsight the bet of the weekend, Hercules havent scored in their last ten away games, at 5/6 it was a steal.  I was -10pts at this stage for the day.

Luckily I recovered all losses at the greyhounds at Shelbourne via Broadstrand Lad (7/4 winner), Colourful Fox (7/2 loser), Quick Lee (11/4 winner), which enabled the great escape with a half point profit for the day.  Maybe tomorrow will be more successful, bets below:

Over 2.5 - Cagliari v Udinese     10/11

Over 2.5 - St Pauli v Stuttgart     4/7

4 pts @ 3.00

---------------------------------------------------

Correct Score - Chievo v Fiorentina     13/2

1 pt @ 7.5

---------------------------------------------------

Under 2.5 - Chievo v Fiorentina      4/7

Win to nil - AC Milan                     4/5

3 pts @ 2.83

---------------------------------------------------

Fling Dem Arrors

No, its not the local Chinese take away, its what I was thinking at approximately 7pm Thursday evening as I negotiated my way to the couch to watch the regular weekly Premier League Darts on Sky Sports. 

Darts is such a  great game, and it's particularly satisfying to see it on the box so often, following the sponsorship and exposure it has received in recent years.  Phil Taylor is a legend, plain and simple.  It will take any person who emulates his achievements a sheer lifetime to replicate the results he has tanked up over the years.

I played regularly in the Isle of Man years ago, and also in Manchester while I was working one shit job after another, and played to a decent standard I might add, 13 to 17 dart finishes being nothing strange game after game when on song.  I recently bought a board for the spare room and dusted off the old darts which where in their case since Manchester days, ten years ago!  They still frequent the treble twenty, the game never leaves you, you only leave it.  I bought a new set of darts, and they are a better dart for my throwing style.  Next I need to implement my three point plan.

1. Find a local watering hole with a dart board and a dart team.

2. Show up uninvited on a normal Saturday or Sunday afternoon and begin flinging dem arrors.

3. Whip the local players so badly that they are telling me about their pub team and how I should think about joining them some evening.

Still working on stage 1, its not easy finding boards in Dublin.  The one and only thing I prefer about England to Ireland is their love of the game of darts, its everywhere, a board in every pub, you never have to wander far to find an oche ready and waiting. 

Training

One morning in the gym this week, and lots of walking to and from work to merely soak up a few extra calories I added while in the local beer hut during the week, tentatively watching Spurs qualify for the last eight of the champions league; and witness with astonishment how biased the referee was towards Barcelona as they evicted a depleted Arsenal from the competition, the previous evening.

Planning on the same cycling route on Saturday as last week, so that I can compare the stats.  Sunday should see another shorter spin with the ThinkBike group.

Sports Betting

Couple of losing soccer bets midweek, a 3pt bet on Spurs to win, and a 2pt double on Under 2.5 on Spurs/AC Milan & Schalke/Valencia, lose, lose on both fronts.  However, this was swiftly recompensed by Phil 'The Power' Taylor & Adrian 'Jackpot' Lewis in the Darts Premier League on Thursday when they brought me home 6pts profit for the evening.  I had a losing double and treble which included Mark Webster to win his match in the darts also.  Webster lost miserably to Terry Jenkins and deservedly so, he was awful, especially after hammering Lewis the previous week with a 110 average!

The single bets on Taylor & Lewis proved fruitful and swung the financial pendulum in my favour for the evening, to the detriment of Paddy Power.

Saturday's soccer bets below:

 Top Bet

Both to Score - Cheltenham v Aldershot     4/6

Both to Score - Charlton v Brentford          4/6

5 pts @ 2.78

 Next Best

Over 2.5 - Stockport v Burton Albion      8/11

Over 2.5 - Northampton v Macclesfield   8/11

4 pts @ 2.98

 A.N.Other

Both to Score - Hoffenheim v Dortmund            8/11

Both to Score - Almeria v Ath Madrid               4/6

4 pts @ 2.88

 A.N.Other

Both NOT to Score - Real Madrid v Hercules   4/6

Both NOT to Score - Schalke v Frankfurt         8/11

3 pts @ 2.88

 A.N.Other

Home Win - Brighton   4/11
Home Win - QPR        4/9

3 pts @ 1.97

 The Longshot

Both to Score - Cheltenham v Aldershot              4/6

Over 2.5 - Northampton v Macclesfield               8/11

Both NOT to Score - Real Madrid v Hercules     4/6

Home Win - Brighton                                          2/5

Both to Score - Hoffenheim v Dortmund              8/11

1 pt @ 11.30

Tuesdays Sports Bets

Sports Betting
  Top Bet
Both to Score - Leicester v Norwich        4/6
Over 2.5 - Accrington v Stockport           4/6

5 pts @ 2.78


 Next Best
Both to Score - Southend v Gillingham     8/11
Both to Score - Macclesfield v Crewe     1/2

4 pts @ 2.59


A.N.Other
Home Win - Accrington Stanley    4/6
Home Win - Tranmere                  4/5

4pt @ 3.00


 The Longshot
Top Bet & Next Best combined

1pt @ 7.2


Another steak dinner last night, going to turn into a feckin steak soon.  Tasted better than usual as it was paid for by a winning double: Deportivo to win combined with Blackpool/Chelsea both to score, 2/1 return.

Long Weekend

 Training

Long weekend on the bike but necessary all the same.  Six and half hours on Saturday (yesterday) saw me reach the other side of Slieve Mann, via Shay Elliott and Sally Gap, retracing my route on the return leg.  Only 120km on the clock but 2,200m of climbing proved to be a recognisable improvement on the previous weeks 135km & 1800m climbing.  Route Here

The last 40km as usual was the most mundane section, but that's always the case, especially on the cold dreary days when the mist has settled on the mountains and you are cycling through a cloud.  I needed lights on my first pass of Sally Gap, but on the return the mist had lifted somewhat but was replaced by a cold breeze which turned my feet in to blocks of ice.  Six and a half hours is a long ride on your lonesome, thankfully I had decided to take my ipod which spurred me during the up tempo songs and broke the monotony on the long straights and seemingly endless countryside.  The weather makes such a  difference to the interpretation of the Wicklow wilderness.  I had also toyed with the idea of adding two laps of Wicklow Gap to the route but reckoned I was biting off more than I could chew at this stage of the year so refrained, and glad I did.

I wasn't long home before deciding not to cook for one, her beautiful self having travelled to her homeland for the weekend, and again visited the local steakhouse for my dinner (and starter and dessert).  I earned those calories so I was gonna enjoy them properly.  Good day all round.

I rose Sunday to take part in the ThinkBike spin, a mere 65km spin to Sally Gap via Djouce & Luggala.  The previous week I didn't feel up to the second Sunday spin of climbing, but this week I felt much stronger and tagged along.  I sat at the back for most if not all of the journey matching pace with the slower members of the group, which suited me fine.  To be honest, I'm not sure if I could have gone any faster if I tried, after Saturday's exertions.  By completing 65km on Sunday it clearly demonstrated an improvement in my endurance, recovery, and overall strength which is satisfying.  My ass hates me, or at least hates cycling, having spent over ten hours of the weekend sat upon what now feels like a razor blade (even though it is a comfortable enough saddle in its own right).

Current weight 13st 7.5 lbs, down from a starting weight of 14st 0.25lb.

Target weight for La Marmotte is 12st 7-10lb.

 Sports Betting

Sunday's soccer -3pts

I did have a Sunday TV double on Liverpool/Man Utd & Wolves/Spurs games which I hadn't posted, more for an interest when watching the games more than anything else but they were viable wagers nonetheless.  Both to Score double paid 2/1.  It looked a non event until Hernandez popped up in the 91st minute to score for Man U, to save my bacon in the first game.  I didn't have long to wait in the second fixture before collecting, it was 2-2 by half time, finishing 3-3.

There are midweek fixtures on Tuesday which will receive my attention between now and then.

Sunday Sports Bets

Sunday 6-March Soccer bets are:

A.N.Other
Over 2.5 - Malaga v Osasuna      11/10
Over 2.5 - Ath Bilbao v Sevilla     4/5

3pts double @ 3.78  (2.78/1)


Saturday's Results:

Soccer             +3.84 pts
Greyhounds      -6 pts

Total P&L =  -2.16 pts

The longshot came close at 13.3/1, needing only Millwall to sneek a goal against Watford, unfortunately it never materialised.

Lots of trouble in dog races.  Tyrur Domingo took out Allowdale at the first bend, ending both their chances.  Broadstrand Lad missed the break and got wrote off at first bend also.  Tyrur Henry ran a stinker.

Weekend Sports Bets

 Sports Betting

Saturday's soccer bets are:

 Top Bet

Both To Score - Wycombe v Aldershot         4/5

Both To Score - M'Gladbach v Hoffenheim   8/15

5pts @ 2.76  (1.76/1 Double)

--------------------------------------------------------------

 Next Best

Over 2.5 - Hannover v Bayern Munich    8/13

Over 2.5 - Stockport v Oxford               10/11

4pts @ 3.08  (2.08/1 Double)

 --------------------------------------------------------------

 A.N.Other

Both To Score - Auxerre v PSG          Evs

Both To Score - Watford v Millwall     4/6

 3pts @ 3.33  (2.33/1 Double)

--------------------------------------------------------------

 A.N.Other

Over 2.5 - Peterborough v Exeter       1/2

Over 2.5 - Leeds v Doncaster             4/6

3pts @ 2.5  (1.5/1 Double)

--------------------------------------------------------------

 The Longshot

Both To Score - Wycombe v Aldershot     4/5

Over 2.5 - Stockport v Oxford                  10/11

Both To Score - Watford v Millwall          4/6

Over 2.5 - Peterborough v Exeter             1/2

Over 2.5 - Leeds v Doncaster                   4/6

1pt @ 14.32 (13.32/1 Accum)

--------------------------------------------------------------

Tote Gold Cup 2nd Round - Shelbourne Park

Some decent races lined up for the second round.

Heat 1 - Both of last week's fancies, Tyrur Domingo & Allowdale Prince, oppose each other in the first heat.  Tyrur will very likely go off favourite in this heat ,however, I have concerns over the number of dogs in this race that prefer to dive towards the rails during the run to the first bend.  This could cause some crowding on the inside.  Meanwhile, Alllowdale Prince in trap 6, arguably his favourite trap, will have the whole outside to himself.  Allowdale should be a decent price, around 4/1, and represents good value in a potentially hazardous race.

Trap 6 - Allowdale Prince 2pts Win

Heat 2 - Traps 1,2 &4 should dominate this race from start to finish.  They should go round the first 2 bends in close contention, and I expect trap 2 (Broadstrand Lad) to show his great back straight pace to take the lead down the far side and retain the advantage to the winning line.  Won't be a big price, 5/4 ish.

Trap 2 - Broadstrand Lad 2pts win

Heat 3 - Razdazl George will undoubtedly begin favourite in this race, but with more pace on his left tonight than the previous evening when he won, I'd prefer to watch rather than take an active part in the ring.  He is a rising star but will meet more trouble in this grade as he continues through the competition and will be interesting to see how he handles it.  No bet.

Heat 4 - I think whatever leads around the second bend in this race will probably win the race, and all have potential of doing so.  1,2&3 should have a little more speed than the others and from these three dogs I like the recent improvements in trap 2, Tyrur Henry.  This dog has huge gears and is capable of blowing the others away should he find his top form, and will be good value to boot at around 3/1.

Trap 2 - Tyrur Henry 2pts win

Step It Up

 Training

Tough cycle on Saturday, finished up with 135km under the belt and the legs were sore (aswell as the back, arms, ass, etc).  Got a puncture after 10km and hoped it wasn't a prelude of things to come, plus the only tube I had in the saddle bag was punctured too; had to borrow a tube from one of my cycling colleagues, which I must remember to replace on the next spin (note to self).  Fortunately, that was the only puncture of the day between the three of us on the outing.

I finished the last 40km alone, from just before Manor Kilbride to Sally Gap and descended to civilisation via Stocking Lane.  My chain came off approaching Manor Kilbride, which I combined with a nature break which left me a few mins behind the other two, who to my immediate amazement trudged on without waiting or showing any concern for my safety or whereabouts.  I suppose in hindsight I did have a phone which could have been used to contact them had I another puncture and no tubes, which would have been exactly the scenario in which I would have found myself.  In their defence, they had deadlines to meet, and their better halves probably have them pussy whipped so what can you do.  No drama.

I was rewarded for my efforts by my girlfriend with a nice fillet steak on Saturday evening at the local steakhouse, which is great value and does produce a mean lean fillet.  Of course I couldn't leave without my favourite desert (cheescake) before trudging home sliently chastising myself by humming the oompa loompa melody, and I didn't feel one bit guilty.  Thirty mins later and I was snoring my head off in le chambre.

Sunday morning, I rose early with the best intentions of joining the ThinBike.ie spin, however, thirty mins on the couch and heightening pains from the previous day's exertions gave me fair warning that I was not up to a 60km spin; a warning which I heeded thankfully, and watched the UFC I had recorded the previous night/early morning.  Next came Murphy's Law, Sod's Law, or whatever that law is, irony at any rate.  I decided to do a short 20km spin up the mountain as my Sunday solo, and before which I would take a trip to Thinkbike for a few tubes as I had none.  My initial thoughts were 'let's hope I dont get a puncture on the way there', but its only 3-4km from where I live so what are the chances.  Just in case I took the tube which had a slow puncture from the previous day from the bin and stuffed it into my jacket, anticipating it would last a couple of km, but sure I'd never need it anyway.  Wrong, 2km in to my short trip for tubes I approached what car's recognise as potholes, and cyclists would recognise as craters.  A late bunny hop to jump the hollow saw my front wheel easily clear the gap, but my back wheel landed exactly on the rim of the crater, three seconds later the rear wheel was as flat as a pancake.  Typical, go shopping for tubes and get a puncture on your way there.

I managed a sedate 25km on Sunday after everything and was tired right up until Tuesday evening.  This morning (Wednesday) I hit the gym at 6am and will replicate those efforts tomorrow morning and Friday morning also.  Saturday and Sunday will again see the bike brought to the fore.  Toying with the idea of tackling Shay Elliott & Slieve Mann, weather dependent of course.  Need to reduce my tendency to munch chocolate, three bars today, what am I playing at.  The harder I train the more I seem to think I can stuff my face with garbage, diet needs to be more strict from here on in.

 Sports Betting

Tyrur Domingo won his heat and is now 12/1 (from 20/1) to win the Tote Gold cup.  Allowdale Prince came third in his heat and is now (10/1) to lift the trophy.  Tyrur Carey was eliminated, after a bump at trap rise and losing interest after first bend traffic.  There are four heats on Saturday evening which I will review between now and then.

A winning football treble was selected on Tuesday evening, Exeter (both teams to score), Cheltenham (over 2.5), and Portsmouth (home win).  The plan was to bet it on the way home or when I got home bet it online.  Nope, went to the pub with the girlfriend  on the way home and forgot clean all about it. 

In future, instead of putting up a shortlist, which isn't a fair reflection of my choices as some of these I eliminate, I will list my actual bets, in a points format.  Each bet shall have between 0.5 and 5pts associated to it, higher points representing stronger opinions and/or better value inherent in the selection at a particular price.  The strategy will be less volatile than February's shortlisting, and will provide for longer term progressive returns, and not trying to build Rome in a day.  Season to date, showing an ROI of +37%, which I am hoping to improve upon.

I am in the position whereby I may be setting up a new online business with a colleague, a decision which will be finalised as yay or nay in the next seven days.  I have a few figures to review and analyse in order to reach the yay or nay decision, after testing the idea for the last 6 months.  At first glance, the total results are positive, not world beating but further delving into the numbers will reveal how much potential can be harnessed with some tweaking in key areas.  More to come.