Monday, February 7

Tale of the Scales

Training
Two nights in the gym, relatively easy work outs if I'm honest and only one day on the bike at the weekend. The wind was howling like a wolf on speed Friday night and I was doubting the validity of getting out for a few hours on Saturday without risking life and limb getting blown all over the road. Thankfully, the wind had receded by Saturday morning and was replaced by a dreary miserable wet, actually very wet, gloomy day. The whole day had a feeling of dusk about it, such was the darkness of the sky but I carefully located my happy glasses and set off wrapped up like an onion hoping to stay out for as long as possible.

When I first bought the bike and all the paraphernalia that accompanied it, one item purchased was a pair of Oakley jawbones (215 squid) for those sunny days and to make you look cool and feel faster than you really are. Getting blinded by the sun was never a worry throughout the summer months, however, put those bad boys on on a day like Saturday past and its like Prozac in reverse. Its like cycling blindfolded, and makes a depressingly bad weather day even more gloomy and depressing than before. To counter this I visited the store that has a little of everything and a lot of nothing, yes, our good old friend Argos, who efficiently relieved me of €14.99 and I now had a pair of 'Happy Glasses'. Insert the yellow lenses and the gloomiest day is now bright and cheerful, and your mood lifted, for a fraction of the price of the designer what nots.


Off to Edmonston Rd again and towards Sally Gap, only to encounter lots of water running over the road at Glencree which put me off climbing the last hundred metres up to the gap, so I decided to play it safe and descended to Enniskerry. The lower plains were fine with nice comfortable temperatures, but it began to chill somewhat as I rose to Glencree so my mind was made up to stay lower down. Plus if the weather turned to Mr Nasty I wouldn't be too far from home if I stayed this side of the hills. From Enniskerry up the main road towards Stepaside, turned off at the roundabout and up by Johnny Foxes and Pineforest Road to Viewing Point for the second time. Descended stocking lane with the intention of executing another loop of Edmonston, Cruagh, Stocking lane but I felt like a drowned rat at this point and my feet were freezing. My weakest link is the feet, once they are wet its the beginning of the end.

Overshoes aren't worth a monkeys as far as keeping the feet dry is concerned. I need to invest in a pair of waterproof cycling shoes if such contraptions exists, maybe a cross between a pair of Sidi's and a pair of wellies would suffice.
I sauntered home with circa 60km and 3 hours in the saddle, determined that Sunday would be another opportunity to get the legs turning. Yeah right, I could barely get to sleep Saturday night with the racket the wind was making and when Sunday morning was no better there was little point in venturing out in a gale, safety first; or maybe its laziness first and safety as a valid excuse. After the cycle I duly decided to hop on the scales and test how truthful the better half is when she constantly maintains I'm losing weight. I was pleasantly surprised to read 13st 8.5lb on the display, down from 14st 0.25lb and still having a few beers at the weekend to boot and a night dining out, result!

Pet Hates
Watched the rugby Saturday afternoon with a mate and his girlfriend, then we all joined my girlfriend afterwards to watch 'The Fighter' in the cinema at 6.30. Save yourself 2 hours of your life and don't get tricked by the advert proclaiming its the best thing since sliced bread, or Rocky, or whatever they claim. Average at best.

One thing that really shakes my palm trees the wrong way are doormen with attitude and an over inflated ego of self importance. After leaving the cinema all four in our party decided to try out the new bar that has opened recently in Rathmines, called 'Copan'.
On approach it was quite easily to see it wasn't that busy as there were four doormen loitering outside, looking menacingly at passers by like they were considering whether to mug some unfortunate soul, a bit like something you would see in the Sopranos; if Scorcese himself jumped out and shouted "action!" you wouldn't have batted and eyelid.

I led the group and attempted to weave my way through the scrum of bouncers when the small fat foreign one stepped into my path. "Where are you coming from?" he spouted, "the cinema", I replied. He repeated himself for some reason, "where are you coming from", so likewise I repeated myself, "the cinema", I again replied. I was already getting pissed of with this asshole, what fucking business of his is it where I'm coming from. Before I gained my professional qualifications I worked for approx 7 years in the bar and hotel industry, both behind the bar and on the door. When I come across guys like this it really is annoying, they just give everyone a bad name.

Not happy with my first two answers he then asked "where do you live?". At this point I calmly looked at the others in the group and said "Lets go somewhere else", thinking to myself 'what a fucking prick to have on the door of a new bar with zero regulars greeting people'. Its bad enough that publicans rob you blind with their prices but now we have to pass a fucking questionnaire in order to be privileged enough to allow them the pleasure to over charge us? That's one bar I wont be spending any money in.

As I walked away one of the girls questioned why he asks such irrelevant questions, 'its a standard question' he retorted, and right on cue, two girls walked straight past and into the premises without answering any of his so called standard questions. I don't know where he worked previously if he thinks that is standard. I would love to take him up to the north of our Emerald Isle and stand him at a door and let him ask the same random questions, I would be surprised if he made it past midnight intact.
At the next local watering hole we were warmly greeted with a kind hello and and a warm smile by their doorman, which could explain why Copan was empty and Rody Bolands busy.


Sports Betting
Damn you Hereford, I'm gonna say that again, damn you Hereford! Five out of six of the 'Both Teams to Score' selections were triumphant only to be let down by the Hereford 0 v 1 Lincoln result. That left me with 3 nearly winning accumulators priced at 6/1, 12/1 & 20/1.

Another option may be to bet 6 x five timers and 1 x six timer for 7 bets and reduce the stakes for each individual bet. That way any 5 winning would likely double your money, and all six winning would return somewhere in the region of 14 times your original total outlay (obviously these returns will vary slightly with varying prices). Food for thought at any rate. Not much happening football wise midweek, other than internationals, which are only worth betting if you have too much money and need relieving of it, alternatively stay as far away as possible. There are a few League 1 & 2 games taking place Tuesday evening. Might partake in a 7.5/1 accumulator (4 selections), should further analysis agree with the stats.

Huddersfield to win
Leyton Orient v Swindon - Over 2.5 goals
Hereford v Macclesfield - Both teams to score
Morcambe v Alderdshot - Both teams to score

Remember Hereford, you owe me!

Thursday, February 3

Just One More Goal

Training
Not much to report, flat spin to the heights of Phoenix park, legs felt good even after the weekend where I was reluctantly attempting to ruin all the good work from the wrong end of a beer bottle. Slow pace, middle range HR, yet my average pace did increase so signs of improvement. I know I am dropping weight but not venturing anywhere near the scales just yet. Dropping weight can be deceiving, as you burn fat you gain muscle, yet the weight doesn't fall as much as you would have assumed, therefore I can do without staring at the numbers on my scales in disbelief. I'll let the trousers and the shirts whisper their approval as I begin to get lost in them.
There will be 2 nights in the gym to add, plus the Weekend's spins.




Sports Betting
Midweek footie is like Jekyll & Hyde, all goes according to predictions or it chews you up and spits you out like used chewing gum. It was all going according to plan, except I just needed one more goal on Tuesday, and yes, on Wednesday too.

5 of the 6 'Both Teams to Score' I listed came in. I had 3 accumulators, the first 4 teams, the first 5 teams & the first 6 teams. First 4 steamed in, the 6th was up and now I was waiting on QPR v Portsmouth to collect a nice Little earner from a small outlay. Pompey did everything but score apparently, finishing QPR 2 v 0 Portsmouth.......... still small profit for the evening.

Wednesday, got a mail from a colleague who delves into the footie roller coaster himself. He doesn't know it but his worst bets are the Draw No Bet market (I record his selections and assess them for trends and profitability). Every time he picks a team for Draw No Bet, they get hammered, its no joke. He recommended Blackburn ( versus Spurs) & Blackpool (versus West Ham), both Draw No Bet. Off the top of my head the Blackburn bet was a no no straight away, however, I may have leaned towards Blackpool had I been forced to release a prediction. That suddenly changed to 'Spurs & West Ham were now bankers' because he fancied their opponents with the disastrous 'Draw No Bet' prediction.

I got adventurous and added Liverpool (won), Bolton (won), Fulham (won), and Man City (draw) for an 87/1 accum. Come on Man City....just one more goal!!! No joy. Was only a small bet but it would have been a handy 1k+ on a Wednesday evening..... small loss for the evening.

My stats analysis programme has thrown more shortlisted fixtures than I can shake the proverbial stick at so will list the highest 6 ranked (and do a crazy bet myself including them all).

This Weekend's Shortlist:

Over 2.5 Goals
M'Gladbach v Stuttgart, Peterboro v Southampton, Hereford v Lincoln, Sevilla v Malaga, Barcelona v Ath Madrid, Rotherham v Crewe.
Accumulator (6) pays circa 15/1

Both Teams To Score
M'Gladbach v Stuttgart, Hereford v Lincoln, Almeria v Espanyol, Carlisle v Walsall, Auxerre v Lille, Exeter v Huddersfield
Accumulator with first 4 pays circa 6/1
Accumulator with first 5 pays circa 12/1
Accumulator with all 6 pays circa 20/1


I'll probably bet the Both To Score accums, and add another 12 teams on top for an adventurous monster accum of 18 teams returning 15,400/1, has to be a sure thing, bye bye work, hello New York!

If you want the other 12 games, they are - Portsmouth, Montpelier, Inter, Sevilla, Morecambe, Wigan, Northampton, Chesterfield, Peterborough, Hoffenheim, Southend, Villareal.

Cross those fingers now.

Monday, January 31

A Lazy Week

Training

At I least I got 3 nights in the gym, which I quickly negated by drinking Friday, Saturday & Sunday. Being away for the weekend it was obvious there would be no bike time, and all drink time so a backward step for the week no doubt.


At least my new tyres arrived, and arrived before me, perched against the front door upon arrival. Thankfully they only arrived on Monday a few hours before me, and not Friday, otherwise they would have been sitting outside the apartment all weekend making everyone aware that nobody was home. How fucking stupid are postmen?


Anyway, the tyres, Continental Grand Prix 4000's (red) were swiftly adorning the fulcrum zeroes, red on red, lovely. I took pleasure dumping the ragged Schwalbe Ultremos. Its strange, the Schwalbes eroded so quickly yet I never punctured once, they went completely out of shape and warped quicker than the tyre wore down. They were lying in the cupboard for about a year before I used them, and if I remember correctly there was a recall at some stage back then so I could have purchased a faulty set. I may invest in a pair for La Marmotte all the same. The Conti's will keep me going in the mean time.


Back training tomorrow again, probably a spin on the bike, then hit the gym wed, Thur, Fri, back on the bike Sat & Sun. That's the plan, whether I stick to it is another story which will be told at a later date.

Sports Betting
The over 2.5 selections came in on Saturday, with 4 from 5 winning on the both to score shortlist, however, the losing selection (Lille v Lens - 1-0) I had included in my accumulator. One Lens goal the difference between -135 or +585, it never arrived. Still showed small profit for January so cant complain.


Tuesday (1 Feb) & Wednesday (2 Feb) shortlist, include and exclude at your own discretion.


Both Teams To Score
Southend v Oxford, Torquay v Hereford, Exeter v Southampton, Peterborough v Sheff Wed, QPR v Portsmouth, Aldershot v Barnet


Over 2.5 Goals
Peterborough v Sheff Wed, QPR v Portsmouth, Watford v Crystal Palace, Torquay v Hereford


Home Wins
Roma, Watford, Peterborough, Man Utd, Udinese, Bournemouth

Tuesday, January 25

Sports Betting

Since I was 14 and began working for a bookmaker at the local Greyhound Track, I was forever masquerading as the mad mathematician, compiling formulae to predict the winners of the next nights greyhound racing, and make my millions, alongside delving into the Sport of Kings for a period, revelling in selecting 3 Grand National winners on the trot among others. Armed with a pen, paper, calculator and the bible (the racing post form guide), I spent hours formulating my selections. Meanwhile, informing my mother that all homework was done... little did she know this was my homework.

Years on, I have swapped my pen, paper and calculator for a slightly more modern approach. Now armed with Microsoft Excel and VBA programming the formulae have evolved into statistical analysis and algorithms comprised of various and numerous macros. The pen is not mightier than the computer I am glad to say.

I have since dropped horses from my repertoire and added soccer. My main Sports for betting are now soccer and greyhound racing.

Sports betting is heaven and hell, and everything in between. One day you are elated, have the Midas touch, and you cant go wrong. The next you are dragged to the deepest depths of your sanity questioning your ability to predict anything correctly. The level of elation and despair which you operate at is directly related to the stakes you wager and how affordable they are in relation to your financial position. Bet relatively small and insignificant stakes, you will rarely despair, but also rarely be elated. Unless you do a lot of homework, and know your sport very well, alongside being able to price your own selections independently, I recommend keeping it small. Once you begin to raise the stakes enough to elevate you beyond the financial comfort zone where emotion rules the roost, you are on a roller coaster ride with a crashing ending, emotional betting is the worst type of betting, worse than loyalty betting, and it takes losing to realise this and produce the ability to suffocate it when it rears its ugly head, and it always will.


In order to win, you need to first accept to lose. You cannot win everyday, its impossible, accept losing days for what they are, and if they niggle at the back of your mind alongside the "what ifs" and "could have's", refrain from betting until they are gone, otherwise rational thought is clouded by emotional betting and chasing losses. Even the professional life long punters have winning and losing years, and a fortune of ups and downs in between.


For the soccer end of things, I concentrate on various leagues, namely:

Premiership, Championship, League 1, League 2, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, French Championnat.

Some leagues will show certain traits, Bundesliga is good for goals (63% Over 2.5 goals), French Championnat for draws (35% games drawn), La Liga for home wins (55%). You can follow the league stats and carry it down into particular teams in that league, for example keep your Bundesliga bets to over 2.5 goals but be selective according to the individual team stats within the league, among other variables.

With so much volatility in the Win, Lose, Draw market this season to date, it seems the money lies in goals, especially in my two favourite markets:


1. Both Teams To Score - both teams to score at anytime in the match.

2. Over 2.5 Goals - the sum of both teams goals add to over 2.5 (i.e. 3 goals or more in the game).

I have been and done the thousand euro swings, I now prefer (while working at least) to reduce the anxiety to levels were I can enjoy the sport for what it is alongside the extra income it generates. I haven't decided my final bets nor betting strategies for this weekend, but my shortlist is comprised of the below:

Over 2.5 Goals
Hercules v Barcelona, Walsall v Bristol, Leverkusen v Hannover (Fri), Sheff Wed v Hereford, Colchester v Peterborough (Fri).

Both Teams To Score

Valienciennes v Lyon, Lille v Lens, Juventus v Udinese, Walsall v Bristol, Rochdale v Charlton, Oxford v Cheltenham.

Here We Go Again.....

La Marmotte 2011....

Signed up and registered, accommodation booked, flight to book yet but will do so soon, then its purely focusing on training until the first Saturday in July where I'll line up alongside 7,000 other crazy people and assault 4 of the alps on a bike.



Last years Marmotte was easily the toughest day I have ever had on a bike, and I'm hoping it will remain the toughest for ever more amen. It was the only time in my life where I detested cycling for a relatively short period of time, and vowed never to sit in the saddle again....however, this year my planning and preparation will be totally superior in both quality and quantity compared to last year.

Last years training was sporadic and inconsistent, primarily due to 3 reasons (or should I say excuses) beyond my control.


1. The weather - I didn't get out as early in the year as I had hoped for due to the weather and all the freezing temperatures it brought with it, and dangerous road conditions, especially in the hills. This year I have already started which will give me a good 6 weeks head start on last year, thumbs up on number one.


2. Illness - I was laid up for approx 3 weeks with flu like symptoms last year, which admittedly isn't a lot but (another excuse) after 3 weeks on your ass it takes another 2 to get back to where you were before you were put on your ass, so it definitely didn't help. Touch wood, this wont be an issue this year, and therefore it's thumbs up on number 2.


3. Free Time to Cycle - Last year I began working in a new job, which involved working 2 weeks per month abroad, which obviously meant 2 weeks per month eating out on expenses, and drinking out (some on expenses, some not). This year its full time home, no travelling... thumbs up on number 3.


Taking the above 3 points into consideration there is absolutely no excuse for failing to finish the course this year (I hope). What time I am expecting to achieve........any time before dark will do me fine. I have one extra incentive to climb Alpe Duez at the finish this year, my hotel is at the top of it, so whether I cycle or walk it I'll be getting over the line at some stage :)


Training to date
Only 3 longish spins on the road to date over the last 3 weeks - 60, 70 & 90km, two of which involved the mountains. They were rather meagre average paced jaunts but its distance I want right now so it will steadily increase over the next month or 6 weeks to the point where I am doing 150km+ every Saturday. I will use Sundays as a recovery ride with the ThinkBike.ie club spins. They leave from outside the shop in Rathmines at 9.30am every Sunday and are handy and enjoyable, good bunch of people.


Weekdays should see me concentrating on Gym work, swimming and some hill repeats (most likely Edmonston road & stocking lane). I'll throw in the odd TT type training also during week nights and track my progress.


Starting Weight was a puffy 14st 1/4lb, my heaviest weight carried ever. Since I have started cycling I have put on weight, or maybe that should read "since I started drinking and eating out more I have put on weight", which just coincided with cycling.
Anyway, target weight for Marmotte is 12st 7lb, fingers crossed and stomach stapled its achievable.


That's the story so far, will update with training on a weekly basis, and some other ranting in between......


Adh Mor Ort.