Overshoes aren't worth a monkeys as far as keeping the feet dry is concerned. I need to invest in a pair of waterproof cycling shoes if such contraptions exists, maybe a cross between a pair of Sidi's and a pair of wellies would suffice.
Monday, February 7
Tale of the Scales
Overshoes aren't worth a monkeys as far as keeping the feet dry is concerned. I need to invest in a pair of waterproof cycling shoes if such contraptions exists, maybe a cross between a pair of Sidi's and a pair of wellies would suffice.
Thursday, February 3
Just One More Goal
Not much to report, flat spin to the heights of Phoenix park, legs felt good even after the weekend where I was reluctantly attempting to ruin all the good work from the wrong end of a beer bottle. Slow pace, middle range HR, yet my average pace did increase so signs of improvement. I know I am dropping weight but not venturing anywhere near the scales just yet. Dropping weight can be deceiving, as you burn fat you gain muscle, yet the weight doesn't fall as much as you would have assumed, therefore I can do without staring at the numbers on my scales in disbelief. I'll let the trousers and the shirts whisper their approval as I begin to get lost in them.
There will be 2 nights in the gym to add, plus the Weekend's spins.
Sports Betting
Midweek footie is like Jekyll & Hyde, all goes according to predictions or it chews you up and spits you out like used chewing gum. It was all going according to plan, except I just needed one more goal on Tuesday, and yes, on Wednesday too.
5 of the 6 'Both Teams to Score' I listed came in. I had 3 accumulators, the first 4 teams, the first 5 teams & the first 6 teams. First 4 steamed in, the 6th was up and now I was waiting on QPR v Portsmouth to collect a nice Little earner from a small outlay. Pompey did everything but score apparently, finishing QPR 2 v 0 Portsmouth.......... still small profit for the evening.
Wednesday, got a mail from a colleague who delves into the footie roller coaster himself. He doesn't know it but his worst bets are the Draw No Bet market (I record his selections and assess them for trends and profitability). Every time he picks a team for Draw No Bet, they get hammered, its no joke. He recommended Blackburn ( versus Spurs) & Blackpool (versus West Ham), both Draw No Bet. Off the top of my head the Blackburn bet was a no no straight away, however, I may have leaned towards Blackpool had I been forced to release a prediction. That suddenly changed to 'Spurs & West Ham were now bankers' because he fancied their opponents with the disastrous 'Draw No Bet' prediction.
I got adventurous and added Liverpool (won), Bolton (won), Fulham (won), and Man City (draw) for an 87/1 accum. Come on Man City....just one more goal!!! No joy. Was only a small bet but it would have been a handy 1k+ on a Wednesday evening..... small loss for the evening.
My stats analysis programme has thrown more shortlisted fixtures than I can shake the proverbial stick at so will list the highest 6 ranked (and do a crazy bet myself including them all).
This Weekend's Shortlist:
Over 2.5 Goals
M'Gladbach v Stuttgart, Peterboro v Southampton, Hereford v Lincoln, Sevilla v Malaga, Barcelona v Ath Madrid, Rotherham v Crewe.
Accumulator (6) pays circa 15/1
Both Teams To Score
M'Gladbach v Stuttgart, Hereford v Lincoln, Almeria v Espanyol, Carlisle v Walsall, Auxerre v Lille, Exeter v Huddersfield
Accumulator with first 4 pays circa 6/1
Accumulator with first 5 pays circa 12/1
Accumulator with all 6 pays circa 20/1
I'll probably bet the Both To Score accums, and add another 12 teams on top for an adventurous monster accum of 18 teams returning 15,400/1, has to be a sure thing, bye bye work, hello New York!
If you want the other 12 games, they are - Portsmouth, Montpelier, Inter, Sevilla, Morecambe, Wigan, Northampton, Chesterfield, Peterborough, Hoffenheim, Southend, Villareal.
Cross those fingers now.
Monday, January 31
A Lazy Week
Tuesday, January 25
Sports Betting
Years on, I have swapped my pen, paper and calculator for a slightly more modern approach. Now armed with Microsoft Excel and VBA programming the formulae have evolved into statistical analysis and algorithms comprised of various and numerous macros. The pen is not mightier than the computer I am glad to say.
I have since dropped horses from my repertoire and added soccer. My main Sports for betting are now soccer and greyhound racing.
Sports betting is heaven and hell, and everything in between. One day you are elated, have the Midas touch, and you cant go wrong. The next you are dragged to the deepest depths of your sanity questioning your ability to predict anything correctly. The level of elation and despair which you operate at is directly related to the stakes you wager and how affordable they are in relation to your financial position. Bet relatively small and insignificant stakes, you will rarely despair, but also rarely be elated. Unless you do a lot of homework, and know your sport very well, alongside being able to price your own selections independently, I recommend keeping it small. Once you begin to raise the stakes enough to elevate you beyond the financial comfort zone where emotion rules the roost, you are on a roller coaster ride with a crashing ending, emotional betting is the worst type of betting, worse than loyalty betting, and it takes losing to realise this and produce the ability to suffocate it when it rears its ugly head, and it always will.
In order to win, you need to first accept to lose. You cannot win everyday, its impossible, accept losing days for what they are, and if they niggle at the back of your mind alongside the "what ifs" and "could have's", refrain from betting until they are gone, otherwise rational thought is clouded by emotional betting and chasing losses. Even the professional life long punters have winning and losing years, and a fortune of ups and downs in between.
For the soccer end of things, I concentrate on various leagues, namely:
Premiership, Championship, League 1, League 2, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, French Championnat.
Some leagues will show certain traits, Bundesliga is good for goals (63% Over 2.5 goals), French Championnat for draws (35% games drawn), La Liga for home wins (55%). You can follow the league stats and carry it down into particular teams in that league, for example keep your Bundesliga bets to over 2.5 goals but be selective according to the individual team stats within the league, among other variables.
With so much volatility in the Win, Lose, Draw market this season to date, it seems the money lies in goals, especially in my two favourite markets:
1. Both Teams To Score - both teams to score at anytime in the match.
I have been and done the thousand euro swings, I now prefer (while working at least) to reduce the anxiety to levels were I can enjoy the sport for what it is alongside the extra income it generates. I haven't decided my final bets nor betting strategies for this weekend, but my shortlist is comprised of the below:
Over 2.5 Goals
Hercules v Barcelona, Walsall v Bristol, Leverkusen v Hannover (Fri), Sheff Wed v Hereford, Colchester v Peterborough (Fri).
Both Teams To Score
Valienciennes v Lyon, Lille v Lens, Juventus v Udinese, Walsall v Bristol, Rochdale v Charlton, Oxford v Cheltenham.
Here We Go Again.....
Signed up and registered, accommodation booked, flight to book yet but will do so soon, then its purely focusing on training until the first Saturday in July where I'll line up alongside 7,000 other crazy people and assault 4 of the alps on a bike.
Last years Marmotte was easily the toughest day I have ever had on a bike, and I'm hoping it will remain the toughest for ever more amen. It was the only time in my life where I detested cycling for a relatively short period of time, and vowed never to sit in the saddle again....however, this year my planning and preparation will be totally superior in both quality and quantity compared to last year.
Last years training was sporadic and inconsistent, primarily due to 3 reasons (or should I say excuses) beyond my control.
1. The weather - I didn't get out as early in the year as I had hoped for due to the weather and all the freezing temperatures it brought with it, and dangerous road conditions, especially in the hills. This year I have already started which will give me a good 6 weeks head start on last year, thumbs up on number one.
2. Illness - I was laid up for approx 3 weeks with flu like symptoms last year, which admittedly isn't a lot but (another excuse) after 3 weeks on your ass it takes another 2 to get back to where you were before you were put on your ass, so it definitely didn't help. Touch wood, this wont be an issue this year, and therefore it's thumbs up on number 2.
3. Free Time to Cycle - Last year I began working in a new job, which involved working 2 weeks per month abroad, which obviously meant 2 weeks per month eating out on expenses, and drinking out (some on expenses, some not). This year its full time home, no travelling... thumbs up on number 3.
Taking the above 3 points into consideration there is absolutely no excuse for failing to finish the course this year (I hope). What time I am expecting to achieve........any time before dark will do me fine. I have one extra incentive to climb Alpe Duez at the finish this year, my hotel is at the top of it, so whether I cycle or walk it I'll be getting over the line at some stage :)
Training to date
Only 3 longish spins on the road to date over the last 3 weeks - 60, 70 & 90km, two of which involved the mountains. They were rather meagre average paced jaunts but its distance I want right now so it will steadily increase over the next month or 6 weeks to the point where I am doing 150km+ every Saturday. I will use Sundays as a recovery ride with the ThinkBike.ie club spins. They leave from outside the shop in Rathmines at 9.30am every Sunday and are handy and enjoyable, good bunch of people.
Weekdays should see me concentrating on Gym work, swimming and some hill repeats (most likely Edmonston road & stocking lane). I'll throw in the odd TT type training also during week nights and track my progress.
Starting Weight was a puffy 14st 1/4lb, my heaviest weight carried ever. Since I have started cycling I have put on weight, or maybe that should read "since I started drinking and eating out more I have put on weight", which just coincided with cycling.
Anyway, target weight for Marmotte is 12st 7lb, fingers crossed and stomach stapled its achievable.
That's the story so far, will update with training on a weekly basis, and some other ranting in between......
Adh Mor Ort.