Thursday, February 3
Just One More Goal
Not much to report, flat spin to the heights of Phoenix park, legs felt good even after the weekend where I was reluctantly attempting to ruin all the good work from the wrong end of a beer bottle. Slow pace, middle range HR, yet my average pace did increase so signs of improvement. I know I am dropping weight but not venturing anywhere near the scales just yet. Dropping weight can be deceiving, as you burn fat you gain muscle, yet the weight doesn't fall as much as you would have assumed, therefore I can do without staring at the numbers on my scales in disbelief. I'll let the trousers and the shirts whisper their approval as I begin to get lost in them.
There will be 2 nights in the gym to add, plus the Weekend's spins.
Sports Betting
Midweek footie is like Jekyll & Hyde, all goes according to predictions or it chews you up and spits you out like used chewing gum. It was all going according to plan, except I just needed one more goal on Tuesday, and yes, on Wednesday too.
5 of the 6 'Both Teams to Score' I listed came in. I had 3 accumulators, the first 4 teams, the first 5 teams & the first 6 teams. First 4 steamed in, the 6th was up and now I was waiting on QPR v Portsmouth to collect a nice Little earner from a small outlay. Pompey did everything but score apparently, finishing QPR 2 v 0 Portsmouth.......... still small profit for the evening.
Wednesday, got a mail from a colleague who delves into the footie roller coaster himself. He doesn't know it but his worst bets are the Draw No Bet market (I record his selections and assess them for trends and profitability). Every time he picks a team for Draw No Bet, they get hammered, its no joke. He recommended Blackburn ( versus Spurs) & Blackpool (versus West Ham), both Draw No Bet. Off the top of my head the Blackburn bet was a no no straight away, however, I may have leaned towards Blackpool had I been forced to release a prediction. That suddenly changed to 'Spurs & West Ham were now bankers' because he fancied their opponents with the disastrous 'Draw No Bet' prediction.
I got adventurous and added Liverpool (won), Bolton (won), Fulham (won), and Man City (draw) for an 87/1 accum. Come on Man City....just one more goal!!! No joy. Was only a small bet but it would have been a handy 1k+ on a Wednesday evening..... small loss for the evening.
My stats analysis programme has thrown more shortlisted fixtures than I can shake the proverbial stick at so will list the highest 6 ranked (and do a crazy bet myself including them all).
This Weekend's Shortlist:
Over 2.5 Goals
M'Gladbach v Stuttgart, Peterboro v Southampton, Hereford v Lincoln, Sevilla v Malaga, Barcelona v Ath Madrid, Rotherham v Crewe.
Accumulator (6) pays circa 15/1
Both Teams To Score
M'Gladbach v Stuttgart, Hereford v Lincoln, Almeria v Espanyol, Carlisle v Walsall, Auxerre v Lille, Exeter v Huddersfield
Accumulator with first 4 pays circa 6/1
Accumulator with first 5 pays circa 12/1
Accumulator with all 6 pays circa 20/1
I'll probably bet the Both To Score accums, and add another 12 teams on top for an adventurous monster accum of 18 teams returning 15,400/1, has to be a sure thing, bye bye work, hello New York!
If you want the other 12 games, they are - Portsmouth, Montpelier, Inter, Sevilla, Morecambe, Wigan, Northampton, Chesterfield, Peterborough, Hoffenheim, Southend, Villareal.
Cross those fingers now.
Monday, January 31
A Lazy Week
Tuesday, January 25
Sports Betting
Years on, I have swapped my pen, paper and calculator for a slightly more modern approach. Now armed with Microsoft Excel and VBA programming the formulae have evolved into statistical analysis and algorithms comprised of various and numerous macros. The pen is not mightier than the computer I am glad to say.
I have since dropped horses from my repertoire and added soccer. My main Sports for betting are now soccer and greyhound racing.
Sports betting is heaven and hell, and everything in between. One day you are elated, have the Midas touch, and you cant go wrong. The next you are dragged to the deepest depths of your sanity questioning your ability to predict anything correctly. The level of elation and despair which you operate at is directly related to the stakes you wager and how affordable they are in relation to your financial position. Bet relatively small and insignificant stakes, you will rarely despair, but also rarely be elated. Unless you do a lot of homework, and know your sport very well, alongside being able to price your own selections independently, I recommend keeping it small. Once you begin to raise the stakes enough to elevate you beyond the financial comfort zone where emotion rules the roost, you are on a roller coaster ride with a crashing ending, emotional betting is the worst type of betting, worse than loyalty betting, and it takes losing to realise this and produce the ability to suffocate it when it rears its ugly head, and it always will.
In order to win, you need to first accept to lose. You cannot win everyday, its impossible, accept losing days for what they are, and if they niggle at the back of your mind alongside the "what ifs" and "could have's", refrain from betting until they are gone, otherwise rational thought is clouded by emotional betting and chasing losses. Even the professional life long punters have winning and losing years, and a fortune of ups and downs in between.
For the soccer end of things, I concentrate on various leagues, namely:
Premiership, Championship, League 1, League 2, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, French Championnat.
Some leagues will show certain traits, Bundesliga is good for goals (63% Over 2.5 goals), French Championnat for draws (35% games drawn), La Liga for home wins (55%). You can follow the league stats and carry it down into particular teams in that league, for example keep your Bundesliga bets to over 2.5 goals but be selective according to the individual team stats within the league, among other variables.
With so much volatility in the Win, Lose, Draw market this season to date, it seems the money lies in goals, especially in my two favourite markets:
1. Both Teams To Score - both teams to score at anytime in the match.
I have been and done the thousand euro swings, I now prefer (while working at least) to reduce the anxiety to levels were I can enjoy the sport for what it is alongside the extra income it generates. I haven't decided my final bets nor betting strategies for this weekend, but my shortlist is comprised of the below:
Over 2.5 Goals
Hercules v Barcelona, Walsall v Bristol, Leverkusen v Hannover (Fri), Sheff Wed v Hereford, Colchester v Peterborough (Fri).
Both Teams To Score
Valienciennes v Lyon, Lille v Lens, Juventus v Udinese, Walsall v Bristol, Rochdale v Charlton, Oxford v Cheltenham.
Here We Go Again.....
Signed up and registered, accommodation booked, flight to book yet but will do so soon, then its purely focusing on training until the first Saturday in July where I'll line up alongside 7,000 other crazy people and assault 4 of the alps on a bike.
Last years Marmotte was easily the toughest day I have ever had on a bike, and I'm hoping it will remain the toughest for ever more amen. It was the only time in my life where I detested cycling for a relatively short period of time, and vowed never to sit in the saddle again....however, this year my planning and preparation will be totally superior in both quality and quantity compared to last year.
Last years training was sporadic and inconsistent, primarily due to 3 reasons (or should I say excuses) beyond my control.
1. The weather - I didn't get out as early in the year as I had hoped for due to the weather and all the freezing temperatures it brought with it, and dangerous road conditions, especially in the hills. This year I have already started which will give me a good 6 weeks head start on last year, thumbs up on number one.
2. Illness - I was laid up for approx 3 weeks with flu like symptoms last year, which admittedly isn't a lot but (another excuse) after 3 weeks on your ass it takes another 2 to get back to where you were before you were put on your ass, so it definitely didn't help. Touch wood, this wont be an issue this year, and therefore it's thumbs up on number 2.
3. Free Time to Cycle - Last year I began working in a new job, which involved working 2 weeks per month abroad, which obviously meant 2 weeks per month eating out on expenses, and drinking out (some on expenses, some not). This year its full time home, no travelling... thumbs up on number 3.
Taking the above 3 points into consideration there is absolutely no excuse for failing to finish the course this year (I hope). What time I am expecting to achieve........any time before dark will do me fine. I have one extra incentive to climb Alpe Duez at the finish this year, my hotel is at the top of it, so whether I cycle or walk it I'll be getting over the line at some stage :)
Training to date
Only 3 longish spins on the road to date over the last 3 weeks - 60, 70 & 90km, two of which involved the mountains. They were rather meagre average paced jaunts but its distance I want right now so it will steadily increase over the next month or 6 weeks to the point where I am doing 150km+ every Saturday. I will use Sundays as a recovery ride with the ThinkBike.ie club spins. They leave from outside the shop in Rathmines at 9.30am every Sunday and are handy and enjoyable, good bunch of people.
Weekdays should see me concentrating on Gym work, swimming and some hill repeats (most likely Edmonston road & stocking lane). I'll throw in the odd TT type training also during week nights and track my progress.
Starting Weight was a puffy 14st 1/4lb, my heaviest weight carried ever. Since I have started cycling I have put on weight, or maybe that should read "since I started drinking and eating out more I have put on weight", which just coincided with cycling.
Anyway, target weight for Marmotte is 12st 7lb, fingers crossed and stomach stapled its achievable.
That's the story so far, will update with training on a weekly basis, and some other ranting in between......
Adh Mor Ort.
Monday, July 5
La Marmotte 2010
It's difficult training for an event which you have no idea of, other than the reports of other participants (which are very much welcomed and appreciated), combined with elevation figures on a map. In hindsight, for myself at least, the only proper way to prepare for the animal that is La Marmotte, is to experience the climbs first hand then train based on your experience. There will obviously be younger, naturally talented athletes who will ace this first time, but I guarantee they will have trained properly for it.
The day began early, 5am rise for breakfast and the trip from La Grave, where we stayed, to Bourg d'Oisan the start point. An organised queue and roll out, I crossed the mat at 8am feeling optimistic about the day's challenge. My training wasn't exactly top notch, but I had a few long cycles under my belt with a good bit of climbing, even though it was only 4 months preparation with some interruptions, I felt it would be sufficient for the long slog to the heights of Alpe Duez some time before dark.......
AT THE START
Other than a piss stop after the first 5km it was relatively painless and I averaged a modest 35kph amongst the hundreds of riders heading for the first of the day's heights to be scaled.
BEGINNING OF FIRST CLIMB
As we hit the first ascent of the day, the first thing I noticed was my heart rate, at 165bpm and I was only crawling a long at a speed of 9kph. WTF? I have no great affinity for climbing if I'm honest, and certainly wouldn't call myself a climber by any means, more of a descender, gravity being my friend at 13stone 4lb, but its normally around the 150bpm mark at this slow pace. I reckoned it was a due to the elevation and the heat, thinking to myself ...it will settle down when I get into a rhythm.
It was pretty warm at this early stage and the temperature increased steadily for the first 3 hours of the cycle. Le Croix De Fer rises from the base at 800m to 1,900m at the summit, over a distance of 21km approx. Its steep for the first 5km, levels out with a slight decline for the next 5km then gets steeper again until the summit. I found it surprisingly long, but then again I had no experience with alpine climbs. Everyone explained to me before the event about the magnitude of the climbs but you only think you can assess them until you arrive on the scene....
The scenery is quite spectacular, especially on the climb to the summit of Le Croix De Fer, however, my appreciation of the surrounding beauty lessened exponentially as the suffering increased throughout the day. I did get a few snaps in, majority of them early in the ride while I could still raise my head to take in the landscape.
I slogged on slowly but comfortable to the summit, getting passed consistently by all types of riders, male and female, some of the woman on this ride were quite strong. I was deliberately slow so that I would have a better chance of completing the course. Towards the last 1km of Le Croix De Fer a woman passed me as if I was stopped. If she was a day she was at least 55years old and flying up the climb. She didn't have a number and looked like a local but she put a lot of younger guys to shame as she spun up the road leaving the rest of us heaving and spluttering in the searing heat. I was out of water about 2km from the top and refilled at the food stop on the peak, along with stuffing some particularly shit food down my neck......couple of buns, 2 slices of salami, couple pieces of dried fruit. All the good stuff must have gone on the first two waves, I decided I would stop at a cafe later. It took me 2hrs 35 mins to reach the first food stop, I'd travelled only 36km, it was 10.35am, and already the heat was beginning to get to me. Its gonna get even warmer, what will it be like then I thought. Even on holidays I shy away from the sun, climbing the Alpes was something I'd prefer to do in modest temperatures, but that's something you cant control so must adapt to, take it or leave it.
I stopped for 15mins at the first food stop, before the Glandon descent. Descending Glandon was fun, easily the most enjoyable part of the day for me. The descent lasts approx 20km, is winding and narrow and testing, but if you like descending as I do its great fun. This was the only part of the day that not one person passed me, I flew down passing up to hundred people who had previously gone by me on the way up the other side. A lot of people were taking it easy, the organisers decided not to time the Glandon descent to increase safety, as it could be quite treacherous. I overshot one corner after passing out two riders and a car on the bend and realised I had to reign it in a little. Luckily there was nothing coming up the other way, I got off light. The first 2km is open and visibility is good, then it gets closed in and blind corners are the norm. Apparently and unfortunate soul overshot a corner on the Galibier descent and got creamed by an oncoming motor bike. His bike was in two parts and he was taken in a ambulance slowly down the mountain, I hope he recovers but have no idea as to his state. Its very easy to make a mistake and get caught out, I made a few myself as would a lot of riders but most go unpunished. I reached the bottom of the Glandon 25mins after I began the descent and was sorry to see the end of the downhill section, probably because I knew in the back of my mind the only way was up from there on. Even descending my HR was at 155bpm, although I was pedalling between bends. As high as my HR was climbing Le Croix De Fer, I was never gasping for air, I always felt comfortable enough, just slow.
The Telegraphe was the most difficult 1hr and 40mins I have ever endured on a bike, it was sheer hell and felt like an eternity. I was shattered from the heat, I literally could have fallen asleep had I closed my eyes. There are loads of riders together in a line climbing yet not a sound, everyone suffers alone. The climbs are relentless, up, up, up.....13km doesn't sound like much but when you are wrecked and climbing its huge. I covered the first 8km of the 13km and had to stop for a rest. I sat in one of the rare shaded regions on a rock and licked a bar of caramel from the wrapper, slugging down the last of my water, there was another refill point further up the Telegraphe which I took advantage of. I went through 14 water bottles for the day, not sure if this is high for others but it was certainly high by my usual standards.
The buses swept the course picking up the debris of riders that had had enough. A few guys were stopped close beside me on the Telegraphe, one was on the phone asking about the bus, he was finished for the day, I asked him to order me pizza, he looked puzzled, another guy asked for a beer, we got neither...others walked past pushing their bikes. The people that cycled past looked jealous that I was resting and happy at the same time that they could still go on. A guy was openly weeping at the roadside, exhausted, broken from the duress of the climbs and heat, it was pure carnage, the Telegraphe blitzed scores of riders around me. I wondered if I would reach the summit on the bike, all the time I swore I would never get on that bus.......I wanted to quit so much, but there was no way I was doing that.
As I approached the top of the Telegraphe I felt nauseous for a few seconds but it quickly wore off, as I peaked the climb my right hamstring and calve began to cramp uncontrollably, I dismounted, hopped slowly to a chair outside the cafe at the top, and ordered a panini and a coke, as I watched the queue of riders waiting to get on the bus.
I sat for the best part of an hour, as I prepared to leave I spotted Karl , one of the guys in my group, heading for the water station across the road, I shouted to him and he crossed over to the cafe. He had set off earlier than me that morning but I don't remember passing him at any stage, I was glad that I would have company on the climb to the Galibier. My HR dropped from 167bpm to 36bpm during my rest period according to my Garmin, 36bpm sounds low but I was pretty tired.
There's approx 5km of descent from the Telegraphe peak to the base of the Galibier climb (or until the road began rising at any rate), another 18km of climbing awaited. Myself and Karl set off, slowly. The first 12km isn't mad steep but a long drag all the same, until you reach a point called Plan Lachat were it ramps up for the last 6 or 7km. Karl stopped for a brief 60 sec rest after a few km, I joined him, we set off again. Karl stopped again soon later and motioned me to continue which I did. I reached Plan Lachat and dreaded the thought of hauling myself up the climb, I had actually planned on stopping at the bottom for a few minutes, but when I got there I just kept going. I could see Karl a few hundred metres back, keep going Karl I told myself thinking if he can do it, so can I. The mental challenge was every bit as tough as the physical. I continuously reminded myself that once I hit the Galibier peak it was 45km downhill to the base of Alpe Duez, I'd put too much effort in to miss that sort of descent.
ROAD TO GALIBIER
From Plan Lachat the last 6km is steep considering the ground already covered, I stopped again at the 5km mark, a young guy walked passed pushing his bike, "Tough" I asked, "Very tough" he replied without stopping. He was cycling with his father earlier who had since retired to the bus. Karl caught up and we set off again, 5km more I thought. Every km took an age, counting them one at a time. I dropped Karl again, don't ask how, I was averaging 7kph, and barely making any ground on the young guy walking up ahead.
It was getting cooler and I perked up a little but was still knackered, the rain started lightly at first, at the 3km marker it was now heavy and ice cold with claps of thunder. A car pulled up alongside and asked if I wanted the bus. I couldn't speak, but nodded no, they asked again, again I nodded no.......I'm not getting on any bus I thought. I looked down behind me and could see Karl still going, good I thought, if he can do it I can do it.
1km from the summit there is a restaurant on the right had side of the road, there is a tunnel straight ahead about 200 yards (for traffic) which takes you through the Galibier from one side to the other. To the left is a road to the peak which the cyclists were to climb. I had 1km further to the peak and down to the other side of the tunnel and beyond. The bus was parked at the turn point before the restaurant, it was now pissing down, I was drenched but refreshingly cool, I preferred it to the heat but it was getting cold very quickly. A dutch guy I had passed earlier got off the bus and shouted moral support, I smiled inwardly thinking there is wiser people locked up! Putting ourselves through this kind of punishment for no particular reason.
Water ran off the road in sheets as I climbed the last 1km, the clouds were setting at the summit, visibility was poor. Sweat was running into my eyes and stung like mad, I took turns closing one and opening the other. I looked back down at the bus, doubting if it was safe to continue in this weather, worried about descending in the mist. I looked beyond the bus and saw Karl again, still slogging on behind me, if he can do it, I can do it was my motto on the Galibier and it stood me well, I continued on to the peak. It's hard to believe it can be 39C for a long period of the route and then lashing rain and thunder at another but I presume its normal for those parts at altitude.
APPROACHING GALIBIER SUMMIT
The first few hundred metres of descent were treacherous enough, wet, cross-winds, freezing cold fingers for breaking. 15 mins further down and it began to brighten up and get warmer. The road widedned, my speed picked up, I dried out somewhat and was enjoying descending again passing a few riders along the way. There wasn't many riders around at this stage, the field well dispersed. I was probably one of the last still on the road. At this stage, if i'm honest, I had no intention of going anywhere near Alpe Duez, it was taking whatever strength I had left to descend Galibier, even though earlier in the day I stated I'd crawl up it if I had to. How opinions change on the road!
The descent from Galibier is particularly long, the road is patchy in places, but when compared to Irish roads its absolutely fine, and there are a few tunnels to negotiate but very enjoyable all the same. Some tunnels are short and simple, others are long with bends (can't see the exit when you enter), poor lighting and freezing. Remember to pull down your shades before entering or you'll be cycling blind. I did that the day before on a recce, thankfully I wasn't travelling at speed and there was no traffic about. No matter how tired you are you'll speed up through the tunnels when you hear the amplified engine noise of traffic bearing down on you, its scary sometimes. I retained the sack until I hit the flat section just before Alpe Duez, where I flung it to the side of the road. Here I met an English guy who I'd passed on the descent, he had caught back up. I asked if he was doing the Alpe and his reply was "yep, even if I have to walk up it". Well if he can do it....... I was now on schedule for Alpe Duez.
We arrived at the base of Alpe Duez, a young guy stopped us to say we should have given our electronic chips in back at the roundabout to get or deposit back, as there was nobody a the top of the ALpe at this late time in the evening, it was now 7.30pm. There was no way I was going back so told him I'd do it later or if not they can keep the money. Not even sure how much it was as I gave my entry fee to a mate who entered me months earlier. Probably a tenner or something token like. I had no water left and the young lad gave me the last of what he had sitting on the fence, about 200ml. I had been on the bike almost 12 hours and was more tired than ever in my life, not exactly great preparation for climbing Alpe Duez but its not like you have a choice.
There was a lot of riders descending the other way at this stage, at lot of them shouting moral support - "Allez,Allez", "Bravo", "Keep going"....... as nice as their sentiments were they had little affect on my endeavour, should truth be told I would have preferred a push......
Considering how knackered and drained I was on the Telegraphe, I was quite hapy to have reached and attempted Alpe Duez, never mind climbing Galibier. If I had a fiver for everytime I said to myself "never doing this again!" during the cycle, it would have paid for the trip and then some. The last thing I wanted to see that evening was a bicycle. When I woke up the next morning my first thought was "If I dropped another 10lb, trained harder and got used to the heat I'd complete that course no bother.....".
My training for La Marmotte 2011 will begin on October 1st, 2010. I'm looking forward to it already.
Factors I'll consider for my next Marmotte? For me at least, and I'm not a racing cyclist but do complete a few sportives regularly and can put in anything up to 300-400km per week on the bike on average when training regularly.
HEAT - the sun absolutley killed me, more so than I would have imagined. However, its always going to be warm at this time of year in France I'd guess so its just a matter of grinning and bearing it and look for other areas to improve to compensate.
TRAINING - my training wasn't tough enough when you compare the climbs in Ireland as opposed to their counterparts in the Alpes. I should have been attacking the climbs in trainging a lot harder and for longer. Also, I should have simulated TT cycling a lot more whereby my HR is constantly elevated for long periods of time, which it was during La Marmotte.
WEIGHT - power to weight ratio in Ireland doesnt mean a lot, other than how quick you'll climb, for me at least, but you'll still reach the top at some stage. In the Alps it has huge influence on whether you will reach the top or not. I was at least 10lb overweight for the course at 13st 4lb. I had dropped from 14st but should have gone down to around 12st 7lb. I used to weigh myself on the scales in the gym, for months I was always 13st no matter what I did. They were analogue with a bouncy needle, if you leaned forward while on them the needle went up, if you leaned back the needle went down. One day I turned on the digital scales beside them, the fancy ones that read HR etc, and hopped on. I was 14st and couldn't feckin believe it, ha, I was way overweight. I dropped 10lb between then and Marmotte but ideally I should have placed more emphasis on this at an earlier stage of preparation.
Below are some pictures from the day before and day after the event. Click to enlarge for a better view.