Friday, March 18
Long Live 'Long Run'
Thursday, March 17
Cheltenham continued
From the time Oscar's Well clattered the last hurdle, on day two, while in contention for at least a place, my selections have been cursed ever since, and curse was exactly what I did, sitting at work, headphones on, excel on one screen and RTE player on the other. The whole office were no doubt enlightened to hear the "ohaaaw, Fuck ya" I bellowed as he hit the final obstacle.
Day three, my only bet was a double on Poquelin & Big Bucks, and not even I can stop the mighty Big Bucks from winning his third World Hurdle in as many years.
Tomorrow my only bet will be in the Gold Cup, I have decided the poor unfortunate equine chaser that will fall victim to my betting curse shall be "Long Run", I apologise to all connections in advance for placing the stoppers on him.
Training
Today I managed a short two and a half hours on the bike, which consisted of a few loops of Edmonston Rd/Stocking Lane. After last week when I reached the initial climb and felt lifeless, it was a pleasant reversal of form to feel quite good after a week's rest. The legs were strong and I kept the gear ratio higher than normal in order to build the required strength in the legs. A short 45km in total, but more intensive climbing than average.
The weather shall decide my direction and distance tomorrow, currently contemplating visiting Slieve Mann for the second time this season. I think we shall become good friends between now and the first Saturday in July when the Alps come to the fore, and crucify thousands of (select your own word) brave/mad/idiotic cyclists on their mission to scale four of them.
Wednesday, March 16
Cheltenham Day Two
Seconditis
Spirit Son (2nd)
Caroles Legacy (2nd)
Garde Champetre & A New Story (2nd & 3rd)
Quevega (won)
Peddlers Cross & Menorah (2nd & nowhere)
Fortunately I had an each way treble which pulled out 12 points profit for the day (Caroles Legacy, Tullamore Dew, A New Story).
Then it got all sucked up by the soccer, 1 1/2 out of two on both doubles, longshot also lost for a nine point loss, plus I had a 2pt double on Man Utd and Bayern. Even though Inter's first goal was offside the bet still would have lost. -11 pts on soccer, +1 pt for the day. Feels like I lost a fortune, ha.
Todays fancies at Cheltenham are:
1.30 Beshabar
2.05 Oscars Well
2.40 Time For Rupert
3.20 Mater Minded
4.00 Call The Police
4.40 Plan A
5.15 Raise The Beat
My first bet will be an each way accum on the first 6 which pays 250k+ if they all win, should not be too much trouble I hope.
Monday, March 14
Cheltenham
1.30 Spirit Son
2.05 Medermit (nap)
2.40 Caroles Legacy
3.20 Menorah (treble)
4.00 A New Story
4.40 Quevega (nb)
5.15 Tullamore Dew
On the soccer front, clawed back 4 pts on sunday and another 3.7pts tonight via a 2pt double (Norwich/Bristol & Getafe/Bilbao Both to score double @ 2.88).
Tomorrows soccer bets below:
Over 2.5 - Sheff Wed v Peterborough
Both to Score - Crewe v Southend
4pts @ 2.36
---------------------------------------------
Both to Score - Ipswich v Watford
Both to Score - Macclesfield v Lincoln
4pts @ 2.78
---------------------------------------------
Longshot
Both the above bets combined.
1pt @ 6.55
Saturday, March 12
Gazumped!
Friday, March 11
Fling Dem Arrors
Home Win - QPR 4/9
Tuesday, March 8
Tuesdays Sports Bets
Top Bet
Both to Score - Leicester v Norwich 4/6
Over 2.5 - Accrington v Stockport 4/6
5 pts @ 2.78
Next Best
Both to Score - Southend v Gillingham 8/11
Both to Score - Macclesfield v Crewe 1/2
4 pts @ 2.59
A.N.Other
Home Win - Accrington Stanley 4/6
Home Win - Tranmere 4/5
4pt @ 3.00
The Longshot
Top Bet & Next Best combined
1pt @ 7.2
Another steak dinner last night, going to turn into a feckin steak soon. Tasted better than usual as it was paid for by a winning double: Deportivo to win combined with Blackpool/Chelsea both to score, 2/1 return.
Sunday, March 6
Long Weekend
Saturday, March 5
Sunday Sports Bets
A.N.Other
Over 2.5 - Malaga v Osasuna 11/10
Over 2.5 - Ath Bilbao v Sevilla 4/5
3pts double @ 3.78 (2.78/1)
Saturday's Results:
Soccer +3.84 pts
Greyhounds -6 pts
Total P&L = -2.16 pts
The longshot came close at 13.3/1, needing only Millwall to sneek a goal against Watford, unfortunately it never materialised.
Lots of trouble in dog races. Tyrur Domingo took out Allowdale at the first bend, ending both their chances. Broadstrand Lad missed the break and got wrote off at first bend also. Tyrur Henry ran a stinker.
Friday, March 4
Weekend Sports Bets
Wednesday, March 2
Step It Up
Friday, February 25
Back to the grindstone
Friday, February 18
My gym sucks.......
Monday, February 14
Beaten Docket
That tube held until we neared Ashord, then the familiar cries of "Jesus, not again!", forewarned of another impending session with my hand pump, yep, another feckin puncture. This time however, I cut a strip from the punctured tube and lined a particular section of the rim of his wheel where there was what appeared to be a manufacturing impairment (raised edge on the inside of the rim), which was probably nipping the tube, causing our anguish, or his anguish more like. At least it was a dry day, would have been a lot more miserable had we been repairing the punctures in a downpour.
After spending so much time repairing punctures we changed our route to avoid the bigger hills as it was closing in towards sunset, still a good spin though and I could feel it on Sunday when I ventured out again on the ThinBike club spin. Sunday was my first time to scale "the wall", a hill near Djouce with gradient of 19% (according to my garmin), thankfully its not that long. After two hours I was beginning to bonk and needed to stop at a shop for some well deserved chocolate which provided ample fuel to guide me home during the half hour following. Resting up today, after being out for a meal last night treating the Mrs to a valentines dinner.
Reading a new book on training, or should I say my first book on training. Whether I implement any of it or not only time will tell.
Sports Betting
No joy at the weekend, all dockets beaten. Inter couldn't muster a goal against Juve (Juventus 1 v 0 Inter) for the four timer, both to score bet. MK Dons, likewise, could only share the points with Brentford (1 - 1 draw) to scupper the home wins bet. The greyhound longshot at 10/1 finished second to the favourite. Happy with this bet as it required the fav to find a little trouble to enable a victory but such was not the case. He also returned 5/1, half the odds available the day prior to the event. Well, as I self proclaim many a time, 'can't win every day'.
February is titter tottering from profit to loss, currently back in loss territory. There are a few games on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, English leagues and Champions League. The Champions league games look tight enough, plus it becomes increasingly difficult predicting these games, especially for a win, draw, loss scenario, as they are played over two legs and team/management strategies play a large part.
As a Spurs fan I will be shouting on Harrys men against the Italian so called giants AC Milan. Spurs are quite capable on their day of lowering the flag of such mighty adversaries, however, it will be a tad more difficult without the very talented Gareth Bale. They will still field a strong team and their opponents are ageing in a few departments which could prove to be their inherent weakness over the two legs. I would be happy with a draw Tuesday evening, with everything to fight for at White Harte Lane during the second leg.
Same pattern as before, 'Both Teams to Score' & 'Home Wins' are the predictions midweek, below:
Both Teams To Score
Exeter v Swindon
Torquay v Burton Albion
Sheff Utd v Reading
Southend v Wycombe
Tranmere v Sheff Wed
Aldershot v Lincoln
Accumulator with first four pays approx 7/1
Accumulator with first five pays approx 12/1
Accumulator with all six pays approx 20/1
Home Wins
Tranmere
Hamburg
Watford
Treble pays approx 7/1
Thursday, February 10
Another Day, Another.......
Put in another evening on the bike and another evening in the gym. Was heading towards Edmonston Rd again (where else would I be headed), with five lights and a high vis jacket as per usual, I'm all for the Christmas tree effect. Better safe and blinding drivers than being knocked over by blind drivers. The plan was to scale up the heights of the Viewing Point and descend Stocking Lane, returning home. About an hour cycle and approx 20km and a few hundred metres climbing.
About half way up the hill I noticed a blinking red light up ahead, another cyclist was the obvious first thought and I was correct. However, as I got closer the person was walking with their bike, a young woman, mid twenties. She waved at me as I was approaching. "Hi, I'm looking for Ballinteer", she says, "think I might have taken a wrong turn". No fucking shit you took a wrong turn I thought, you are heading up the mountain to pitch black wilderness, are you fucking stupid? When I opened my mouth to speak my thoughts softened to "Christ, Ballinteer, you're going the wrong direction".
"Oh, can I keep going this way and turn off up ahead or is it just another hill?".
"The last place you want to be heading at this time of night is further up this hill." I'm not one for generalisations but she was blond, just a fact I'm pointing out.
She informed me what part of Ballinteer she was looking for, I input the address in to the Garmin and gave her directions to return down the hill and take a right at the Roundabout (where there are lights and people around). It's really silly things like this that's ends up with people going missing and nobody hearing from them ever again, wandering around the middle of nowhere like a sheep blindfolded with a flashing red light attached. Her front light had died so I offered her spare batteries which I carry with me, unfortunately it was a USB charger that powered her dead Cat-eye.
I continued on for another km or so, and then got this real eerie feeling from my surroundings, not sure why nor what it was. I have been up that road many times, day and night and never had much bother, but history has proven that it is good to follow my instincts. I immediately turned around and retraced my route descending Edmonston Rd, deciding to finish the remainder of the hour cycle on the level roads below. I also thought I could guide the lost lady to the plains below as she had no front light, probably something I should have offered initially, but there was no sign of anyone. She must have had no problems finding her way back to civilisation thankfully. I reached home 1 hour, 23km and one good deed later, happy with getting another midweek session in. Planning on one more trip to the gym and two days cycling at the weekend.
Sports Betting
The midweek selections sailed in, the accumulator returning 7.5/1, I also added Exeter v Brenford, both to score, from the night before, which buffed it up to a healthy 14/1 winning bet. Even though Exeter waited until 4 minutes into injury time to convince their fans they have what it takes to hit the onion bag, first minute or last, a goal is a goal. That bet turned a losing February into a winning February for month to date.
This weekend's selections below:
Both Teams to Score
St Etienne v Lyon, Blackpool v Aston Villa, Juventus v Inter Milan, West Brom v West Ham, Valenciennes v Brest, PSG v Lens.
Accumulator on first 4 selections pays circa 11/2
Accumulator on first 5 selections pays circa 12/1
Accumulator on all 6 selections pays circa 28/1
You can increase that to odds of 183/1 by adding:
Aldershot v Macclesfield, Barnet v Torquay, Charlton v Peterborough, Walsall v Bournemouth.
Home Wins
Arsenal, Lille, MK Dons, Oxford
Accumulator pays circa 15/2
Shelbourne Park - Race 10 - 10.00pm Saturday Night
This is the Joe Dunne Memorial Puppy Final, and with puppy comps anything can happen in a final. The six dog is favourite, puppy derby winner, and worthy to be favourite but not at skinny odds of 4/5. This is way too short for me. On the other hand the dog in trap three, Mutual Decision, is a huge price at 10/1. He won his semi final and from watching the videos I can see him leading the inside to the first corner and coming off the second bend in front. He hasn't the fastest pace along the back straight and 2 & 6 will be baring down on him approaching the third bend. Both 2 & 6 will track out on the back straight as the 3 dog rails and they will have no room on the inside, hopefully 2 & 6 will collide at the third fighting for the same ground leaving 3 with a small lead which he can maintain to the line as he stays on strongly enough. At 10/1 odds I would bet this every day of the week, great value, and worthy of a small bet.
Monday, February 7
Tale of the Scales
Overshoes aren't worth a monkeys as far as keeping the feet dry is concerned. I need to invest in a pair of waterproof cycling shoes if such contraptions exists, maybe a cross between a pair of Sidi's and a pair of wellies would suffice.
Thursday, February 3
Just One More Goal
Not much to report, flat spin to the heights of Phoenix park, legs felt good even after the weekend where I was reluctantly attempting to ruin all the good work from the wrong end of a beer bottle. Slow pace, middle range HR, yet my average pace did increase so signs of improvement. I know I am dropping weight but not venturing anywhere near the scales just yet. Dropping weight can be deceiving, as you burn fat you gain muscle, yet the weight doesn't fall as much as you would have assumed, therefore I can do without staring at the numbers on my scales in disbelief. I'll let the trousers and the shirts whisper their approval as I begin to get lost in them.
There will be 2 nights in the gym to add, plus the Weekend's spins.
Sports Betting
Midweek footie is like Jekyll & Hyde, all goes according to predictions or it chews you up and spits you out like used chewing gum. It was all going according to plan, except I just needed one more goal on Tuesday, and yes, on Wednesday too.
5 of the 6 'Both Teams to Score' I listed came in. I had 3 accumulators, the first 4 teams, the first 5 teams & the first 6 teams. First 4 steamed in, the 6th was up and now I was waiting on QPR v Portsmouth to collect a nice Little earner from a small outlay. Pompey did everything but score apparently, finishing QPR 2 v 0 Portsmouth.......... still small profit for the evening.
Wednesday, got a mail from a colleague who delves into the footie roller coaster himself. He doesn't know it but his worst bets are the Draw No Bet market (I record his selections and assess them for trends and profitability). Every time he picks a team for Draw No Bet, they get hammered, its no joke. He recommended Blackburn ( versus Spurs) & Blackpool (versus West Ham), both Draw No Bet. Off the top of my head the Blackburn bet was a no no straight away, however, I may have leaned towards Blackpool had I been forced to release a prediction. That suddenly changed to 'Spurs & West Ham were now bankers' because he fancied their opponents with the disastrous 'Draw No Bet' prediction.
I got adventurous and added Liverpool (won), Bolton (won), Fulham (won), and Man City (draw) for an 87/1 accum. Come on Man City....just one more goal!!! No joy. Was only a small bet but it would have been a handy 1k+ on a Wednesday evening..... small loss for the evening.
My stats analysis programme has thrown more shortlisted fixtures than I can shake the proverbial stick at so will list the highest 6 ranked (and do a crazy bet myself including them all).
This Weekend's Shortlist:
Over 2.5 Goals
M'Gladbach v Stuttgart, Peterboro v Southampton, Hereford v Lincoln, Sevilla v Malaga, Barcelona v Ath Madrid, Rotherham v Crewe.
Accumulator (6) pays circa 15/1
Both Teams To Score
M'Gladbach v Stuttgart, Hereford v Lincoln, Almeria v Espanyol, Carlisle v Walsall, Auxerre v Lille, Exeter v Huddersfield
Accumulator with first 4 pays circa 6/1
Accumulator with first 5 pays circa 12/1
Accumulator with all 6 pays circa 20/1
I'll probably bet the Both To Score accums, and add another 12 teams on top for an adventurous monster accum of 18 teams returning 15,400/1, has to be a sure thing, bye bye work, hello New York!
If you want the other 12 games, they are - Portsmouth, Montpelier, Inter, Sevilla, Morecambe, Wigan, Northampton, Chesterfield, Peterborough, Hoffenheim, Southend, Villareal.
Cross those fingers now.
Monday, January 31
A Lazy Week
Tuesday, January 25
Sports Betting
Years on, I have swapped my pen, paper and calculator for a slightly more modern approach. Now armed with Microsoft Excel and VBA programming the formulae have evolved into statistical analysis and algorithms comprised of various and numerous macros. The pen is not mightier than the computer I am glad to say.
I have since dropped horses from my repertoire and added soccer. My main Sports for betting are now soccer and greyhound racing.
Sports betting is heaven and hell, and everything in between. One day you are elated, have the Midas touch, and you cant go wrong. The next you are dragged to the deepest depths of your sanity questioning your ability to predict anything correctly. The level of elation and despair which you operate at is directly related to the stakes you wager and how affordable they are in relation to your financial position. Bet relatively small and insignificant stakes, you will rarely despair, but also rarely be elated. Unless you do a lot of homework, and know your sport very well, alongside being able to price your own selections independently, I recommend keeping it small. Once you begin to raise the stakes enough to elevate you beyond the financial comfort zone where emotion rules the roost, you are on a roller coaster ride with a crashing ending, emotional betting is the worst type of betting, worse than loyalty betting, and it takes losing to realise this and produce the ability to suffocate it when it rears its ugly head, and it always will.
In order to win, you need to first accept to lose. You cannot win everyday, its impossible, accept losing days for what they are, and if they niggle at the back of your mind alongside the "what ifs" and "could have's", refrain from betting until they are gone, otherwise rational thought is clouded by emotional betting and chasing losses. Even the professional life long punters have winning and losing years, and a fortune of ups and downs in between.
For the soccer end of things, I concentrate on various leagues, namely:
Premiership, Championship, League 1, League 2, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, French Championnat.
Some leagues will show certain traits, Bundesliga is good for goals (63% Over 2.5 goals), French Championnat for draws (35% games drawn), La Liga for home wins (55%). You can follow the league stats and carry it down into particular teams in that league, for example keep your Bundesliga bets to over 2.5 goals but be selective according to the individual team stats within the league, among other variables.
With so much volatility in the Win, Lose, Draw market this season to date, it seems the money lies in goals, especially in my two favourite markets:
1. Both Teams To Score - both teams to score at anytime in the match.
I have been and done the thousand euro swings, I now prefer (while working at least) to reduce the anxiety to levels were I can enjoy the sport for what it is alongside the extra income it generates. I haven't decided my final bets nor betting strategies for this weekend, but my shortlist is comprised of the below:
Over 2.5 Goals
Hercules v Barcelona, Walsall v Bristol, Leverkusen v Hannover (Fri), Sheff Wed v Hereford, Colchester v Peterborough (Fri).
Both Teams To Score
Valienciennes v Lyon, Lille v Lens, Juventus v Udinese, Walsall v Bristol, Rochdale v Charlton, Oxford v Cheltenham.
Here We Go Again.....
Signed up and registered, accommodation booked, flight to book yet but will do so soon, then its purely focusing on training until the first Saturday in July where I'll line up alongside 7,000 other crazy people and assault 4 of the alps on a bike.
Last years Marmotte was easily the toughest day I have ever had on a bike, and I'm hoping it will remain the toughest for ever more amen. It was the only time in my life where I detested cycling for a relatively short period of time, and vowed never to sit in the saddle again....however, this year my planning and preparation will be totally superior in both quality and quantity compared to last year.
Last years training was sporadic and inconsistent, primarily due to 3 reasons (or should I say excuses) beyond my control.
1. The weather - I didn't get out as early in the year as I had hoped for due to the weather and all the freezing temperatures it brought with it, and dangerous road conditions, especially in the hills. This year I have already started which will give me a good 6 weeks head start on last year, thumbs up on number one.
2. Illness - I was laid up for approx 3 weeks with flu like symptoms last year, which admittedly isn't a lot but (another excuse) after 3 weeks on your ass it takes another 2 to get back to where you were before you were put on your ass, so it definitely didn't help. Touch wood, this wont be an issue this year, and therefore it's thumbs up on number 2.
3. Free Time to Cycle - Last year I began working in a new job, which involved working 2 weeks per month abroad, which obviously meant 2 weeks per month eating out on expenses, and drinking out (some on expenses, some not). This year its full time home, no travelling... thumbs up on number 3.
Taking the above 3 points into consideration there is absolutely no excuse for failing to finish the course this year (I hope). What time I am expecting to achieve........any time before dark will do me fine. I have one extra incentive to climb Alpe Duez at the finish this year, my hotel is at the top of it, so whether I cycle or walk it I'll be getting over the line at some stage :)
Training to date
Only 3 longish spins on the road to date over the last 3 weeks - 60, 70 & 90km, two of which involved the mountains. They were rather meagre average paced jaunts but its distance I want right now so it will steadily increase over the next month or 6 weeks to the point where I am doing 150km+ every Saturday. I will use Sundays as a recovery ride with the ThinkBike.ie club spins. They leave from outside the shop in Rathmines at 9.30am every Sunday and are handy and enjoyable, good bunch of people.
Weekdays should see me concentrating on Gym work, swimming and some hill repeats (most likely Edmonston road & stocking lane). I'll throw in the odd TT type training also during week nights and track my progress.
Starting Weight was a puffy 14st 1/4lb, my heaviest weight carried ever. Since I have started cycling I have put on weight, or maybe that should read "since I started drinking and eating out more I have put on weight", which just coincided with cycling.
Anyway, target weight for Marmotte is 12st 7lb, fingers crossed and stomach stapled its achievable.
That's the story so far, will update with training on a weekly basis, and some other ranting in between......
Adh Mor Ort.